UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
62%
19%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.241.133.36safe1.27–3.210.27–1.981.54–5.19safer1.02–3.460.04–2.211.06–5.67
Shots on target
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.443.8210.26safe4.57–8.302.08–5.566.65–13.86safer4.09–8.791.61–6.035.70–14.82
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1610.7226.88safe12.23–20.087.15–14.2819.39–34.36safer11.14–21.176.19–15.2417.34–36.41
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction11.216.8418.04safe8.26–14.154.16–9.5212.42–23.67safer7.43–14.983.42–10.2510.85–25.23
Blocked shots
64%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.932.526.45safe2.04–5.810.87–4.172.91–9.98safer1.50–6.350.38–4.671.88–11.02
Corners
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.883.829.70safe3.67–8.101.82–5.825.49–13.91safer3.10–8.671.28–6.354.38–15.02
Possession %
79%
18%
homeawayprediction57.1542.65safe50.36–63.9435.87–49.43safer48.69–65.6134.19–51.11
Passes
87%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction524390914safe457–591324–457780–1048safer439–609306–474745–1083
Pass accuracy %
67%
28%
homeawayprediction78.0774.12safe74.04–82.1069.79–78.44safer72.75–83.4068.48–79.75
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2014.2125.41safe8.36–14.0411.27–17.1519.63–31.19safer7.60–14.7910.52–17.9018.12–32.70
Offsides
60%
19%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction2.281.263.54safe1.12–3.440.17–2.351.29–5.80safer0.82–3.740.00–2.640.70–6.39
Yellow cards
33%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.072.474.54safe1.02–3.121.34–3.602.36–6.72safer0.76–3.391.05–3.891.81–7.28
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.120.23safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.57safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.86
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.503.956.45safe1.06–3.932.39–5.503.45–9.44safer0.68–4.321.97–5.932.64–10.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.24 1.27–3.21 1.02–3.46 | 1.13 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.21 | 3.36 1.54–5.19 1.06–5.67 | 62% 19% 18% |
| Shots on target | 6.44 4.57–8.30 4.09–8.79 | 3.82 2.08–5.56 1.61–6.03 | 10.26 6.65–13.86 5.70–14.82 | 75% 16% |
| Total shots | 16.16 12.23–20.08 11.14–21.17 | 10.72 7.15–14.28 6.19–15.24 | 26.88 19.39–34.36 17.34–36.41 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 11.21 8.26–14.15 7.43–14.98 | 6.84 4.16–9.52 3.42–10.25 | 18.04 12.42–23.67 10.85–25.23 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 3.93 2.04–5.81 1.50–6.35 | 2.52 0.87–4.17 0.38–4.67 | 6.45 2.91–9.98 1.88–11.02 | 64% 14% 22% |
| Corners | 5.88 3.67–8.10 3.10–8.67 | 3.82 1.82–5.82 1.28–6.35 | 9.70 5.49–13.91 4.38–15.02 | 69% 20% |
| Possession % | 57.15 50.36–63.94 48.69–65.61 | 42.65 35.87–49.43 34.19–51.11 | — | 79% 18% |
| Passes | 524 457–591 439–609 | 390 324–457 306–474 | 914 780–1048 745–1083 | 87% 13% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.07 74.04–82.10 72.75–83.40 | 74.12 69.79–78.44 68.48–79.75 | — | 67% 28% |
| Fouls | 11.20 8.36–14.04 7.60–14.79 | 14.21 11.27–17.15 10.52–17.90 | 25.41 19.63–31.19 18.12–32.70 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 2.28 1.12–3.44 0.82–3.74 | 1.26 0.17–2.35 0.00–2.64 | 3.54 1.29–5.80 0.70–6.39 | 60% 19% 20% |
| Yellow cards | 2.07 1.02–3.12 0.76–3.39 | 2.47 1.34–3.60 1.05–3.89 | 4.54 2.36–6.72 1.81–7.28 | 33% 19% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.50 1.06–3.93 0.68–4.32 | 3.95 2.39–5.50 1.97–5.93 | 6.45 3.45–9.44 2.64–10.25 | 22% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.