UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
25%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.432.87safe0.47–2.400.58–2.291.04–4.69safer0.21–2.650.35–2.510.56–5.17
Shots on target
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.744.719.46safe2.88–6.602.97–6.465.85–13.06safer2.39–7.092.51–6.924.90–14.02
Total shots
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2112.9427.16safe10.29–18.149.38–16.5119.67–34.65safer9.20–19.238.42–17.4717.62–36.70
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction9.089.0718.14safe6.14–12.026.39–11.7512.52–23.77safer5.31–12.855.65–12.4910.95–25.33
Blocked shots
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.814.258.06safe1.93–5.702.60–5.904.53–11.60safer1.39–6.242.10–6.393.49–12.63
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.114.549.65safe2.90–7.332.54–6.545.44–13.87safer2.32–7.902.01–7.074.33–14.97
Possession %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction52.8248.29safe46.03–59.6141.50–55.07safer44.36–61.2839.83–56.75
Passes
63%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5274881014safe460–594421–554881–1148safer442–612404–572845–1184
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction71.3475.13safe67.31–75.3770.80–79.45safer66.02–76.6669.49–80.76
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6011.6722.27safe7.77–13.448.72–14.6116.49–28.05safer7.01–14.207.98–15.3614.99–29.56
Offsides
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.713.41safe0.54–2.860.62–2.801.15–5.66safer0.23–3.160.33–3.090.56–6.25
Yellow cards
34%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.973.67safe0.65–2.740.85–3.101.49–5.85safer0.38–3.010.55–3.390.93–6.41
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.193.256.44safe1.75–4.621.69–4.813.44–9.43safer1.36–5.011.27–5.232.63–10.24
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.47–2.40 0.21–2.65 | 1.43 0.58–2.29 0.35–2.51 | 2.87 1.04–4.69 0.56–5.17 | 38% 25% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.74 2.88–6.60 2.39–7.09 | 4.71 2.97–6.46 2.51–6.92 | 9.46 5.85–13.06 4.90–14.02 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Total shots | 14.21 10.29–18.14 9.20–19.23 | 12.94 9.38–16.51 8.42–17.47 | 27.16 19.67–34.65 17.62–36.70 | 56% 37% |
| Shots in box | 9.08 6.14–12.02 5.31–12.85 | 9.07 6.39–11.75 5.65–12.49 | 18.14 12.52–23.77 10.95–25.33 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.81 1.93–5.70 1.39–6.24 | 4.25 2.60–5.90 2.10–6.39 | 8.06 4.53–11.60 3.49–12.63 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Corners | 5.11 2.90–7.33 2.32–7.90 | 4.54 2.54–6.54 2.01–7.07 | 9.65 5.44–13.87 4.33–14.97 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 52.82 46.03–59.61 44.36–61.28 | 48.29 41.50–55.07 39.83–56.75 | — | 58% 37% |
| Passes | 527 460–594 442–612 | 488 421–554 404–572 | 1014 881–1148 845–1184 | 63% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.34 67.31–75.37 66.02–76.66 | 75.13 70.80–79.45 69.49–80.76 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 10.60 7.77–13.44 7.01–14.20 | 11.67 8.72–14.61 7.98–15.36 | 22.27 16.49–28.05 14.99–29.56 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.54–2.86 0.23–3.16 | 1.71 0.62–2.80 0.33–3.09 | 3.41 1.15–5.66 0.56–6.25 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.65–2.74 0.38–3.01 | 1.97 0.85–3.10 0.55–3.39 | 3.67 1.49–5.85 0.93–6.41 | 34% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.19 1.75–4.62 1.36–5.01 | 3.25 1.69–4.81 1.27–5.23 | 6.44 3.44–9.43 2.63–10.24 | 41% 16% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.