UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
22%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.263.23safe1.01–2.940.40–2.111.41–5.05safer0.76–3.200.17–2.340.93–5.53
Shots on target
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction6.094.4410.53safe4.23–7.952.70–6.186.92–14.13safer3.74–8.442.23–6.655.97–15.09
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction17.7311.4329.16safe13.81–21.667.87–14.9921.68–36.65safer12.72–22.756.91–15.9519.63–38.70
Shots in box
78%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction12.008.0820.07safe9.05–14.945.39–10.7614.45–25.69safer8.22–15.774.66–11.4912.88–27.26
Blocked shots
61%
13%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.603.317.91safe2.72–6.481.65–4.964.37–11.44safer2.17–7.021.16–5.453.34–12.48
Corners
78%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.743.7410.49safe4.53–8.961.74–5.746.27–14.70safer3.96–9.531.21–6.285.17–15.81
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction55.4045.23safe48.61–62.1938.44–52.01safer46.94–63.8636.77–53.68
Passes
80%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5574561012safe490–624389–522879–1146safer471–642372–540843–1182
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction74.3172.26safe70.28–78.3467.94–76.59safer68.99–79.6366.63–77.90
Fouls
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4710.7223.19safe9.63–15.307.78–13.6717.41–28.97safer8.87–16.067.03–14.4115.90–30.47
Offsides
48%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.533.50safe0.81–3.130.44–2.621.25–5.76safer0.51–3.430.15–2.910.66–6.35
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.853.38safe0.47–2.570.73–2.981.20–5.56safer0.21–2.840.43–3.270.64–6.11
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
24%
14%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.764.116.87safe1.32–4.192.55–5.673.87–9.86safer0.93–4.582.13–6.093.06–10.67
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.98 1.01–2.94 0.76–3.20 | 1.26 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.34 | 3.23 1.41–5.05 0.93–5.53 | 54% 22% 24% |
| Shots on target | 6.09 4.23–7.95 3.74–8.44 | 4.44 2.70–6.18 2.23–6.65 | 10.53 6.92–14.13 5.97–15.09 | 64% 25% |
| Total shots | 17.73 13.81–21.66 12.72–22.75 | 11.43 7.87–14.99 6.91–15.95 | 29.16 21.68–36.65 19.63–38.70 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 12.00 9.05–14.94 8.22–15.77 | 8.08 5.39–10.76 4.66–11.49 | 20.07 14.45–25.69 12.88–27.26 | 78% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 4.60 2.72–6.48 2.17–7.02 | 3.31 1.65–4.96 1.16–5.45 | 7.91 4.37–11.44 3.34–12.48 | 61% 13% 26% |
| Corners | 6.74 4.53–8.96 3.96–9.53 | 3.74 1.74–5.74 1.21–6.28 | 10.49 6.27–14.70 5.17–15.81 | 78% 14% |
| Possession % | 55.40 48.61–62.19 46.94–63.86 | 45.23 38.44–52.01 36.77–53.68 | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 557 490–624 471–642 | 456 389–522 372–540 | 1012 879–1146 843–1182 | 80% 20% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.31 70.28–78.34 68.99–79.63 | 72.26 67.94–76.59 66.63–77.90 | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 12.47 9.63–15.30 8.87–16.06 | 10.72 7.78–13.67 7.03–14.41 | 23.19 17.41–28.97 15.90–30.47 | 60% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.51–3.43 | 1.53 0.44–2.62 0.15–2.91 | 3.50 1.25–5.76 0.66–6.35 | 48% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.47–2.57 0.21–2.84 | 1.85 0.73–2.98 0.43–3.27 | 3.38 1.20–5.56 0.64–6.11 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.76 1.32–4.19 0.93–4.58 | 4.11 2.55–5.67 2.13–6.09 | 6.87 3.87–9.86 3.06–10.67 | 24% 14% 63% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.