UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Nenad Minaković · Serbia
Goals
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.760.963.72safe1.80–3.730.10–1.821.90–5.54safer1.54–3.990.00–2.061.39–6.05actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
93%
homeawaytotalprediction8.473.0711.54safe6.62–10.331.36–4.777.98–15.10safer6.12–10.830.89–5.247.01–16.07actual3.003.006.00
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction22.238.2630.49safe18.52–25.934.88–11.6423.41–37.57safer17.49–26.963.95–12.5721.45–39.53actual17.009.0026.00
Shots in box
97%
homeawaytotalprediction15.366.1121.46safe12.84–17.873.81–8.4116.65–26.28safer11.97–18.743.01–9.2114.99–27.94actual11.006.0017.00
Blocked shots
80%
homeawaytotalprediction5.312.517.82safe3.73–6.901.10–3.934.83–10.82safer3.19–7.430.61–4.413.80–11.84actual4.005.009.00
Corners
84%
homeawaytotalprediction7.153.4010.55safe4.94–9.361.43–5.386.37–14.74safer4.35–9.950.89–5.925.24–15.87actual4.005.009.00
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction65.2935.84safe58.97–71.6029.52–42.16safer57.37–73.2027.92–43.75actual62.0038.00
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction612371983safe547–677306–436853–1113safer529–695289–453818–1148actual6263851011
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction83.9473.64safe79.72–88.1669.13–78.14safer78.42–89.4667.80–79.48
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6810.8420.51safe6.82–12.547.89–13.7814.71–26.32safer5.94–13.426.97–14.7012.91–28.12actual13.0013.0026.00
Offsides
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.673.45safe0.57–2.990.51–2.841.08–5.83safer0.23–3.340.18–3.170.41–6.50actual4.000.004.00
Yellow cards
24%
21%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.332.133.47safe0.28–2.391.01–3.251.29–5.64safer0.01–2.660.72–3.540.73–6.20actual0.003.003.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.090.14safe0.00–0.200.00–0.290.00–0.48safer0.00–0.350.00–0.430.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
86%
homeawaytotalprediction1.905.257.15safe0.48–3.313.70–6.814.18–10.12safer0.09–3.703.27–7.243.36–10.94actual2.000.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.76 1.80–3.73 1.54–3.99 | 3.00 | 0.96 0.10–1.82 0.00–2.06 | 1.00 | 3.72 1.90–5.54 1.39–6.05 | 4.00 | 75% 15% |
| Shots on target | 8.47 6.62–10.33 6.12–10.83 | 3.00 | 3.07 1.36–4.77 0.89–5.24 | 3.00 | 11.54 7.98–15.10 7.01–16.07 | 6.00 | 93% |
| Total shots | 22.23 18.52–25.93 17.49–26.96 | 17.00 | 8.26 4.88–11.64 3.95–12.57 | 9.00 | 30.49 23.41–37.57 21.45–39.53 | 26.00 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 15.36 12.84–17.87 11.97–18.74 | 11.00 | 6.11 3.81–8.41 3.01–9.21 | 6.00 | 21.46 16.65–26.28 14.99–27.94 | 17.00 | 97% |
| Blocked shots | 5.31 3.73–6.90 3.19–7.43 | 4.00 | 2.51 1.10–3.93 0.61–4.41 | 5.00 | 7.82 4.83–10.82 3.80–11.84 | 9.00 | 80% |
| Corners | 7.15 4.94–9.36 4.35–9.95 | 4.00 | 3.40 1.43–5.38 0.89–5.92 | 5.00 | 10.55 6.37–14.74 5.24–15.87 | 9.00 | 84% |
| Possession % | 65.29 58.97–71.60 57.37–73.20 | 62.00 | 35.84 29.52–42.16 27.92–43.75 | 38.00 | — | — | 96% |
| Passes | 612 547–677 529–695 | 626 | 371 306–436 289–453 | 385 | 983 853–1113 818–1148 | 1011 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.94 79.72–88.16 78.42–89.46 | — | 73.64 69.13–78.14 67.80–79.48 | — | — | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 9.68 6.82–12.54 5.94–13.42 | 13.00 | 10.84 7.89–13.78 6.97–14.70 | 13.00 | 20.51 14.71–26.32 12.91–28.12 | 26.00 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.57–2.99 0.23–3.34 | 4.00 | 1.67 0.51–2.84 0.18–3.17 | 0.00 | 3.45 1.08–5.83 0.41–6.50 | 4.00 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.33 0.28–2.39 0.01–2.66 | 0.00 | 2.13 1.01–3.25 0.72–3.54 | 3.00 | 3.47 1.29–5.64 0.73–6.20 | 3.00 | 24% 21% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 1.90 0.48–3.31 0.09–3.70 | 2.00 | 5.25 3.70–6.81 3.27–7.24 | 0.00 | 7.15 4.18–10.12 3.36–10.94 | 2.00 | 86% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+