UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
20%
20%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.242.233.48safe0.27–2.211.38–3.091.65–5.30safer0.02–2.461.15–3.321.17–5.78
Shots on target
25%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction4.285.9110.19safe2.42–6.144.17–7.666.59–13.80safer1.93–6.633.71–8.125.63–14.76
Total shots
19%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5215.6727.19safe7.60–15.4512.11–19.2419.71–34.68safer6.50–16.5411.15–20.2017.66–36.73
Shots in box
19%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction7.3510.5817.93safe4.41–10.297.90–13.2612.31–23.55safer3.58–11.127.16–14.0010.74–25.12
Blocked shots
24%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.244.707.94safe1.36–5.123.05–6.354.40–11.47safer0.81–5.662.55–6.843.37–12.51
Corners
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction4.195.619.80safe1.98–6.413.61–7.615.59–14.01safer1.41–6.983.07–8.144.48–15.12
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction37.1163.17safe30.32–43.9056.38–69.95safer28.65–45.5754.71–71.62
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction4196661085safe351–486600–733951–1219safer333–504582–750916–1254
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction71.3683.54safe67.33–75.3979.22–87.87safer66.04–76.6877.91–89.18
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3310.1321.46safe8.49–14.167.18–13.0715.67–27.24safer7.73–14.926.44–13.8214.17–28.74
Offsides
62%
17%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction2.701.534.23safe1.54–3.860.44–2.631.98–6.48safer1.24–4.160.15–2.911.39–7.07
Yellow cards
42%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.503.15safe0.61–2.710.37–2.620.98–5.33safer0.34–2.980.08–2.920.42–5.89
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.852.636.48safe2.42–5.291.08–4.193.49–9.48safer2.03–5.680.65–4.612.68–10.29
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.21 0.02–2.46 | 2.23 1.38–3.09 1.15–3.32 | 3.48 1.65–5.30 1.17–5.78 | 20% 20% 60% |
| Shots on target | 4.28 2.42–6.14 1.93–6.63 | 5.91 4.17–7.66 3.71–8.12 | 10.19 6.59–13.80 5.63–14.76 | 25% 64% |
| Total shots | 11.52 7.60–15.45 6.50–16.54 | 15.67 12.11–19.24 11.15–20.20 | 27.19 19.71–34.68 17.66–36.73 | 19% 76% |
| Shots in box | 7.35 4.41–10.29 3.58–11.12 | 10.58 7.90–13.26 7.16–14.00 | 17.93 12.31–23.55 10.74–25.12 | 19% 74% |
| Blocked shots | 3.24 1.36–5.12 0.81–5.66 | 4.70 3.05–6.35 2.55–6.84 | 7.94 4.40–11.47 3.37–12.51 | 24% 63% |
| Corners | 4.19 1.98–6.41 1.41–6.98 | 5.61 3.61–7.61 3.07–8.14 | 9.80 5.59–14.01 4.48–15.12 | 27% 61% |
| Possession % | 37.11 30.32–43.90 28.65–45.57 | 63.17 56.38–69.95 54.71–71.62 | — | 93% |
| Passes | 419 351–486 333–504 | 666 600–733 582–750 | 1085 951–1219 916–1254 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.36 67.33–75.39 66.04–76.68 | 83.54 79.22–87.87 77.91–89.18 | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 11.33 8.49–14.16 7.73–14.92 | 10.13 7.18–13.07 6.44–13.82 | 21.46 15.67–27.24 14.17–28.74 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 2.70 1.54–3.86 1.24–4.16 | 1.53 0.44–2.63 0.15–2.91 | 4.23 1.98–6.48 1.39–7.07 | 62% 17% 20% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.61–2.71 0.34–2.98 | 1.50 0.37–2.62 0.08–2.92 | 3.15 0.98–5.33 0.42–5.89 | 42% 24% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.85 2.42–5.29 2.03–5.68 | 2.63 1.08–4.19 0.65–4.61 | 6.48 3.49–9.48 2.68–10.29 | 61% 14% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.