UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
23%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.803.15safe0.38–2.320.95–2.661.33–4.98safer0.13–2.570.72–2.890.85–5.46
Shots on target
37%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.585.149.72safe2.72–6.443.39–6.886.11–13.32safer2.23–6.932.93–7.345.16–14.28
Total shots
49%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1813.8828.06safe10.26–18.1110.31–17.4420.57–35.54safer9.16–19.209.35–18.4018.52–37.59
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction9.109.5318.63safe6.16–12.046.85–12.2113.01–24.25safer5.33–12.876.11–12.9511.44–25.82
Blocked shots
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.134.388.51safe2.25–6.012.72–6.034.97–12.04safer1.70–6.562.23–6.523.94–13.08
Corners
48%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.274.9610.23safe3.06–7.492.96–6.966.02–14.45safer2.49–8.062.42–7.494.91–15.55
Possession %
42%
54%
homeawayprediction48.8051.30safe42.01–55.5944.52–58.09safer40.34–57.2642.85–59.76
Passes
49%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction486488973safe418–553421–554840–1107safer400–571404–572804–1143
Pass accuracy %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction73.1176.75safe69.08–77.1472.42–81.07safer67.79–78.4371.11–82.38
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6410.9522.58safe8.80–14.478.00–13.8916.80–28.37safer8.04–15.237.26–14.6415.30–29.87
Offsides
48%
23%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.383.19safe0.65–2.970.29–2.470.94–5.45safer0.35–3.270.00–2.760.35–6.04
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.913.76safe0.80–2.900.78–3.041.58–5.94safer0.53–3.160.49–3.331.02–6.49
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.352.996.33safe1.91–4.781.43–4.543.34–9.32safer1.52–5.171.01–4.972.53–10.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.32 0.13–2.57 | 1.80 0.95–2.66 0.72–2.89 | 3.15 1.33–4.98 0.85–5.46 | 29% 23% 48% |
| Shots on target | 4.58 2.72–6.44 2.23–6.93 | 5.14 3.39–6.88 2.93–7.34 | 9.72 6.11–13.32 5.16–14.28 | 37% 51% |
| Total shots | 14.18 10.26–18.11 9.16–19.20 | 13.88 10.31–17.44 9.35–18.40 | 28.06 20.57–35.54 18.52–37.59 | 49% 44% |
| Shots in box | 9.10 6.16–12.04 5.33–12.87 | 9.53 6.85–12.21 6.11–12.95 | 18.63 13.01–24.25 11.44–25.82 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 4.13 2.25–6.01 1.70–6.56 | 4.38 2.72–6.03 2.23–6.52 | 8.51 4.97–12.04 3.94–13.08 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Corners | 5.27 3.06–7.49 2.49–8.06 | 4.96 2.96–6.96 2.42–7.49 | 10.23 6.02–14.45 4.91–15.55 | 48% 40% |
| Possession % | 48.80 42.01–55.59 40.34–57.26 | 51.30 44.52–58.09 42.85–59.76 | — | 42% 54% |
| Passes | 486 418–553 400–571 | 488 421–554 404–572 | 973 840–1107 804–1143 | 49% 51% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.11 69.08–77.14 67.79–78.43 | 76.75 72.42–81.07 71.11–82.38 | — | 30% 66% |
| Fouls | 11.64 8.80–14.47 8.04–15.23 | 10.95 8.00–13.89 7.26–14.64 | 22.58 16.80–28.37 15.30–29.87 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.65–2.97 0.35–3.27 | 1.38 0.29–2.47 0.00–2.76 | 3.19 0.94–5.45 0.35–6.04 | 48% 23% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.80–2.90 0.53–3.16 | 1.91 0.78–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.76 1.58–5.94 1.02–6.49 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.35 1.91–4.78 1.52–5.17 | 2.99 1.43–4.54 1.01–4.97 | 6.33 3.34–9.32 2.53–10.14 | 48% 16% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.