UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 2·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 2·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
25%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.402.80safe0.43–2.370.55–2.260.98–4.63safer0.18–2.620.32–2.490.50–5.11
Shots on target
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.114.179.28safe3.25–6.972.43–5.915.68–12.89safer2.76–7.461.96–6.384.72–13.84
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction16.6411.2427.89safe12.72–20.577.68–14.8120.40–35.38safer11.63–21.666.72–15.7718.35–37.43
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.788.1918.97safe7.84–13.725.51–10.8713.35–24.59safer7.01–14.554.77–11.6111.78–26.16
Blocked shots
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.853.628.46safe2.96–6.731.97–5.274.93–12.00safer2.42–7.271.47–5.763.89–13.04
Corners
67%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction6.084.1910.28safe3.87–8.302.19–6.196.06–14.49safer3.30–8.871.66–6.734.96–15.60
Possession %
57%
39%
homeawayprediction51.6147.67safe44.82–58.4040.89–54.45safer43.15–60.0739.21–56.13
Passes
63%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction504465969safe437–571398–531835–1102safer418–589381–549799–1138
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction74.9774.03safe70.94–79.0069.71–78.35safer69.65–80.2968.40–79.66
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7512.0723.82safe8.91–14.589.13–15.0218.04–29.60safer8.15–15.348.38–15.7616.53–31.11
Offsides
39%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.543.11safe0.41–2.730.45–2.630.85–5.36safer0.11–3.030.16–2.920.26–5.95
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.792.143.92safe0.74–2.841.01–3.261.74–6.10safer0.47–3.100.72–3.561.19–6.66
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
27%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.573.546.12safe1.14–4.011.99–5.103.13–9.11safer0.75–4.401.56–5.522.31–9.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.40 0.55–2.26 0.32–2.49 | 2.80 0.98–4.63 0.50–5.11 | 37% 25% 37% |
| Shots on target | 5.11 3.25–6.97 2.76–7.46 | 4.17 2.43–5.91 1.96–6.38 | 9.28 5.68–12.89 4.72–13.84 | 56% 32% |
| Total shots | 16.64 12.72–20.57 11.63–21.66 | 11.24 7.68–14.81 6.72–15.77 | 27.89 20.40–35.38 18.35–37.43 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 10.78 7.84–13.72 7.01–14.55 | 8.19 5.51–10.87 4.77–11.61 | 18.97 13.35–24.59 11.78–26.16 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 4.85 2.96–6.73 2.42–7.27 | 3.62 1.97–5.27 1.47–5.76 | 8.46 4.93–12.00 3.89–13.04 | 60% 27% |
| Corners | 6.08 3.87–8.30 3.30–8.87 | 4.19 2.19–6.19 1.66–6.73 | 10.28 6.06–14.49 4.96–15.60 | 67% 23% |
| Possession % | 51.61 44.82–58.40 43.15–60.07 | 47.67 40.89–54.45 39.21–56.13 | — | 57% 39% |
| Passes | 504 437–571 418–589 | 465 398–531 381–549 | 969 835–1102 799–1138 | 63% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.97 70.94–79.00 69.65–80.29 | 74.03 69.71–78.35 68.40–79.66 | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 11.75 8.91–14.58 8.15–15.34 | 12.07 9.13–15.02 8.38–15.76 | 23.82 18.04–29.60 16.53–31.11 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.11–3.03 | 1.54 0.45–2.63 0.16–2.92 | 3.11 0.85–5.36 0.26–5.95 | 39% 24% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.84 0.47–3.10 | 2.14 1.01–3.26 0.72–3.56 | 3.92 1.74–6.10 1.19–6.66 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.57 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 3.54 1.99–5.10 1.56–5.52 | 6.12 3.13–9.11 2.31–9.92 | 27% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.