UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
63%
20%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.141.023.16safe1.17–3.110.17–1.871.33–4.98safer0.92–3.360.00–2.100.86–5.46
Shots on target
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.313.6910.01safe4.45–8.171.95–5.446.40–13.61safer3.96–8.661.49–5.905.45–14.57
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction17.6710.3728.05safe13.75–21.606.81–13.9420.56–35.53safer12.66–22.695.85–14.8918.51–37.58
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction11.386.8818.26safe8.43–14.324.20–9.5612.63–23.88safer7.61–15.153.46–10.3011.07–25.45
Blocked shots
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.893.288.17safe3.00–6.771.63–4.934.63–11.70safer2.46–7.311.14–5.433.60–12.74
Corners
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction6.603.6210.22safe4.39–8.821.62–5.626.01–14.43safer3.82–9.391.08–6.154.90–15.54
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction61.3139.80safe54.52–68.1033.02–46.59safer52.85–69.7731.35–48.26
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction585388972safe518–652321–454839–1106safer499–670304–472803–1142
Pass accuracy %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction76.8469.31safe72.81–80.8764.98–73.63safer71.52–82.1763.67–74.94
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9612.8824.85safe9.12–14.809.94–15.8319.06–30.63safer8.37–15.569.19–16.5817.56–32.13
Offsides
46%
23%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.483.30safe0.66–2.980.38–2.571.05–5.55safer0.36–3.290.10–2.860.46–6.14
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.572.093.67safe0.52–2.620.96–3.221.49–5.84safer0.26–2.890.67–3.510.93–6.40
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.483.886.36safe1.04–3.912.32–5.443.36–9.35safer0.65–4.301.90–5.862.55–10.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.14 1.17–3.11 0.92–3.36 | 1.02 0.17–1.87 0.00–2.10 | 3.16 1.33–4.98 0.86–5.46 | 63% 20% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.31 4.45–8.17 3.96–8.66 | 3.69 1.95–5.44 1.49–5.90 | 10.01 6.40–13.61 5.45–14.57 | 75% 16% |
| Total shots | 17.67 13.75–21.60 12.66–22.69 | 10.37 6.81–13.94 5.85–14.89 | 28.05 20.56–35.53 18.51–37.58 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 11.38 8.43–14.32 7.61–15.15 | 6.88 4.20–9.56 3.46–10.30 | 18.26 12.63–23.88 11.07–25.45 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 4.89 3.00–6.77 2.46–7.31 | 3.28 1.63–4.93 1.14–5.43 | 8.17 4.63–11.70 3.60–12.74 | 65% 23% |
| Corners | 6.60 4.39–8.82 3.82–9.39 | 3.62 1.62–5.62 1.08–6.15 | 10.22 6.01–14.43 4.90–15.54 | 78% 13% |
| Possession % | 61.31 54.52–68.10 52.85–69.77 | 39.80 33.02–46.59 31.35–48.26 | — | 89% |
| Passes | 585 518–652 499–670 | 388 321–454 304–472 | 972 839–1106 803–1142 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.84 72.81–80.87 71.52–82.17 | 69.31 64.98–73.63 63.67–74.94 | — | 82% 15% |
| Fouls | 11.96 9.12–14.80 8.37–15.56 | 12.88 9.94–15.83 9.19–16.58 | 24.85 19.06–30.63 17.56–32.13 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.82 0.66–2.98 0.36–3.29 | 1.48 0.38–2.57 0.10–2.86 | 3.30 1.05–5.55 0.46–6.14 | 46% 23% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.52–2.62 0.26–2.89 | 2.09 0.96–3.22 0.67–3.51 | 3.67 1.49–5.84 0.93–6.40 | 29% 21% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.04–3.91 0.65–4.30 | 3.88 2.32–5.44 1.90–5.86 | 6.36 3.36–9.35 2.55–10.16 | 22% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.