FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
53%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.132.93safe0.84–2.770.27–1.991.11–4.75safer0.58–3.030.02–2.230.60–5.26actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
43%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction5.195.2810.48safe3.34–7.053.58–6.996.91–14.04safer2.84–7.553.11–7.465.95–15.01
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4712.3525.82safe9.76–17.178.97–15.7318.73–32.90safer8.73–18.208.04–16.6616.77–34.86
Shots in box
20%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction4.777.1111.88safe2.26–7.294.81–9.417.06–16.70safer1.39–8.154.01–10.215.40–18.36
Blocked shots
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.423.215.63safe0.84–4.001.79–4.622.63–8.63safer0.30–4.541.31–5.111.61–9.65
Corners
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.513.918.42safe2.30–6.721.93–5.894.24–12.61safer1.71–7.311.40–6.433.11–13.74
Possession %
59%
37%
homeawayprediction51.5947.19safe45.27–57.9040.87–53.51safer43.67–59.5039.27–55.10
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction417394811safe352–483329–458681–941safer335–500312–476646–976
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction69.4368.96safe65.22–73.6564.46–73.47safer63.91–74.9563.13–74.80
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8112.6024.41safe8.95–14.679.66–15.5518.61–30.22safer8.07–15.558.74–16.4716.81–32.02
Offsides
39%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.583.18safe0.39–2.810.42–2.740.81–5.55safer0.05–3.150.08–3.070.13–6.23
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.923.41safe0.43–2.540.80–3.041.23–5.58safer0.16–2.820.51–3.330.67–6.15
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.050.12safe0.00–0.230.00–0.240.00–0.47safer0.00–0.380.00–0.380.00–0.76
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.472.655.12safe1.05–3.881.10–4.202.15–8.08safer0.66–4.270.66–4.641.33–8.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.80 0.84–2.77 0.58–3.03 | 1.00 | 1.13 0.27–1.99 0.02–2.23 | 0.00 | 2.93 1.11–4.75 0.60–5.26 | 1.00 | 53% 23% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.19 3.34–7.05 2.84–7.55 | — | 5.28 3.58–6.99 3.11–7.46 | — | 10.48 6.91–14.04 5.95–15.01 | — | 43% 45% |
| Total shots | 13.47 9.76–17.17 8.73–18.20 | — | 12.35 8.97–15.73 8.04–16.66 | — | 25.82 18.73–32.90 16.77–34.86 | — | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 4.77 2.26–7.29 1.39–8.15 | — | 7.11 4.81–9.41 4.01–10.21 | — | 11.88 7.06–16.70 5.40–18.36 | — | 20% 70% |
| Blocked shots | 2.42 0.84–4.00 0.30–4.54 | — | 3.21 1.79–4.62 1.31–5.11 | — | 5.63 2.63–8.63 1.61–9.65 | — | 29% 16% 55% |
| Corners | 4.51 2.30–6.72 1.71–7.31 | — | 3.91 1.93–5.89 1.40–6.43 | — | 8.42 4.24–12.61 3.11–13.74 | — | 51% 14% 35% |
| Possession % | 51.59 45.27–57.90 43.67–59.50 | — | 47.19 40.87–53.51 39.27–55.10 | — | — | — | 59% 37% |
| Passes | 417 352–483 335–500 | — | 394 329–458 312–476 | — | 811 681–941 646–976 | — | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.43 65.22–73.65 63.91–74.95 | — | 68.96 64.46–73.47 63.13–74.80 | — | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 11.81 8.95–14.67 8.07–15.55 | — | 12.60 9.66–15.55 8.74–16.47 | — | 24.41 18.61–30.22 16.81–32.02 | — | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.39–2.81 0.05–3.15 | — | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.08–3.07 | — | 3.18 0.81–5.55 0.13–6.23 | — | 39% 24% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.43–2.54 0.16–2.82 | — | 1.92 0.80–3.04 0.51–3.33 | — | 3.41 1.23–5.58 0.67–6.15 | — | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | — | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.47 1.05–3.88 0.66–4.27 | — | 2.65 1.10–4.20 0.66–4.64 | — | 5.12 2.15–8.08 1.33–8.91 | — | 38% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.