FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.122.59safe0.51–2.440.26–1.980.77–4.42safer0.25–2.700.02–2.230.27–4.92actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
50%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.694.208.89safe2.83–6.542.49–5.915.32–12.45safer2.33–7.042.03–6.384.36–13.42
Total shots
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9210.0021.92safe8.21–15.626.62–13.3814.84–29.00safer7.18–16.655.69–14.3112.87–30.96
Shots in box
58%
22%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.032.94safe0.00–4.430.00–3.330.00–7.76safer0.00–5.300.00–4.130.00–9.42
Blocked shots
23%
58%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction0.350.310.66safe0.00–1.930.00–1.720.00–3.65safer0.00–2.470.00–2.210.00–4.68
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.204.129.32safe3.00–7.412.14–6.095.13–13.50safer2.40–8.001.60–6.634.00–14.63
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction51.6247.15safe45.31–57.9440.83–53.47safer43.71–59.5439.23–55.06
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction428368797safe363–494304–433667–927safer345–511286–450632–962
Pass accuracy %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction73.4868.84safe69.26–77.6964.34–73.35safer67.96–79.0063.01–74.68
Fouls
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction8.9510.0218.97safe6.10–11.817.07–12.9613.17–24.77safer5.21–12.696.15–13.8811.36–26.57
Offsides
16%
48%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction0.320.590.90safe0.00–1.530.00–1.750.00–3.27safer0.00–1.870.00–2.080.00–3.95
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.973.58safe0.56–2.670.85–3.091.41–5.76safer0.29–2.950.56–3.380.85–6.32
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
26%
39%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction0.610.761.37safe0.00–2.020.00–2.320.00–4.34safer0.00–2.410.00–2.750.00–5.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.51–2.44 0.25–2.70 | 2.00 | 1.12 0.26–1.98 0.02–2.23 | 0.00 | 2.59 0.77–4.42 0.27–4.92 | 2.00 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.69 2.83–6.54 2.33–7.04 | — | 4.20 2.49–5.91 2.03–6.38 | — | 8.89 5.32–12.45 4.36–13.42 | — | 50% 13% 37% |
| Total shots | 11.92 8.21–15.62 7.18–16.65 | — | 10.00 6.62–13.38 5.69–14.31 | — | 21.92 14.84–29.00 12.87–30.96 | — | 62% 30% |
| Shots in box | 1.91 0.00–4.43 0.00–5.30 | — | 1.03 0.00–3.33 0.00–4.13 | — | 2.94 0.00–7.76 0.00–9.42 | — | 58% 22% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 0.35 0.00–1.93 0.00–2.47 | — | 0.31 0.00–1.72 0.00–2.21 | — | 0.66 0.00–3.65 0.00–4.68 | — | 23% 58% 20% |
| Corners | 5.20 3.00–7.41 2.40–8.00 | — | 4.12 2.14–6.09 1.60–6.63 | — | 9.32 5.13–13.50 4.00–14.63 | — | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 51.62 45.31–57.94 43.71–59.54 | — | 47.15 40.83–53.47 39.23–55.06 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 428 363–494 345–511 | — | 368 304–433 286–450 | — | 797 667–927 632–962 | — | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.48 69.26–77.69 67.96–79.00 | — | 68.84 64.34–73.35 63.01–74.68 | — | — | — | 70% 26% |
| Fouls | 8.95 6.10–11.81 5.21–12.69 | — | 10.02 7.07–12.96 6.15–13.88 | — | 18.97 13.17–24.77 11.36–26.57 | — | 36% 55% |
| Offsides | 0.32 0.00–1.53 0.00–1.87 | — | 0.59 0.00–1.75 0.00–2.08 | — | 0.90 0.00–3.27 0.00–3.95 | — | 16% 48% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.56–2.67 0.29–2.95 | — | 1.97 0.85–3.09 0.56–3.38 | — | 3.58 1.41–5.76 0.85–6.32 | — | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 0.61 0.00–2.02 0.00–2.41 | — | 0.76 0.00–2.32 0.00–2.75 | — | 1.37 0.00–4.34 0.00–5.16 | — | 26% 39% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.