FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
42%
27%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.162.53safe0.41–2.330.30–2.020.70–4.35safer0.14–2.590.05–2.270.20–4.86actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.594.208.79safe2.74–6.452.49–5.915.23–12.36safer2.24–6.952.02–6.384.26–13.32
Total shots
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction11.369.6020.96safe7.66–15.066.23–12.9813.88–28.05safer6.63–16.095.30–13.9111.92–30.01
Shots in box
53%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.092.85safe0.00–4.280.00–3.390.00–7.67safer0.00–5.140.00–4.190.00–9.33
Blocked shots
22%
56%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction0.350.340.69safe0.00–1.930.00–1.750.00–3.69safer0.00–2.470.00–2.240.00–4.71
Corners
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.154.269.41safe2.94–7.352.28–6.245.22–13.59safer2.35–7.951.74–6.784.09–14.72
Possession %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction52.0446.91safe45.72–58.3640.59–53.23safer44.13–59.9638.99–54.83
Passes
68%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction424367791safe358–489303–432661–921safer341–507285–449626–956
Pass accuracy %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction73.4968.75safe69.27–77.7064.25–73.26safer67.97–79.0062.92–74.59
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5311.8723.40safe8.67–14.388.93–14.8217.60–29.20safer7.79–15.278.01–15.7415.79–31.00
Offsides
34%
31%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction0.970.971.94safe0.00–2.180.00–2.140.00–4.31safer0.00–2.520.00–2.470.00–4.99
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.762.023.78safe0.70–2.810.90–3.141.60–5.96safer0.43–3.080.61–3.431.04–6.52
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.733.65safe0.51–3.340.18–3.280.68–6.62safer0.12–3.730.00–3.710.00–7.44
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.41–2.33 0.14–2.59 | 2.00 | 1.16 0.30–2.02 0.05–2.27 | 1.00 | 2.53 0.70–4.35 0.20–4.86 | 3.00 | 42% 27% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.59 2.74–6.45 2.24–6.95 | — | 4.20 2.49–5.91 2.02–6.38 | — | 8.79 5.23–12.36 4.26–13.32 | — | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 11.36 7.66–15.06 6.63–16.09 | — | 9.60 6.23–12.98 5.30–13.91 | — | 20.96 13.88–28.05 11.92–30.01 | — | 61% 31% |
| Shots in box | 1.76 0.00–4.28 0.00–5.14 | — | 1.09 0.00–3.39 0.00–4.19 | — | 2.85 0.00–7.67 0.00–9.33 | — | 53% 23% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 0.35 0.00–1.93 0.00–2.47 | — | 0.34 0.00–1.75 0.00–2.24 | — | 0.69 0.00–3.69 0.00–4.71 | — | 22% 56% 21% |
| Corners | 5.15 2.94–7.35 2.35–7.95 | — | 4.26 2.28–6.24 1.74–6.78 | — | 9.41 5.22–13.59 4.09–14.72 | — | 55% 32% |
| Possession % | 52.04 45.72–58.36 44.13–59.96 | — | 46.91 40.59–53.23 38.99–54.83 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Passes | 424 358–489 341–507 | — | 367 303–432 285–449 | — | 791 661–921 626–956 | — | 68% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.49 69.27–77.70 67.97–79.00 | — | 68.75 64.25–73.26 62.92–74.59 | — | — | — | 70% 26% |
| Fouls | 11.53 8.67–14.38 7.79–15.27 | — | 11.87 8.93–14.82 8.01–15.74 | — | 23.40 17.60–29.20 15.79–31.00 | — | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 0.97 0.00–2.18 0.00–2.52 | — | 0.97 0.00–2.14 0.00–2.47 | — | 1.94 0.00–4.31 0.00–4.99 | — | 34% 31% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.70–2.81 0.43–3.08 | — | 2.02 0.90–3.14 0.61–3.43 | — | 3.78 1.60–5.96 1.04–6.52 | — | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.92 0.51–3.34 0.12–3.73 | — | 1.73 0.18–3.28 0.00–3.71 | — | 3.65 0.68–6.62 0.00–7.44 | — | 43% 22% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.