FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
47%
26%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.062.54safe0.51–2.440.20–1.920.71–4.36safer0.25–2.700.00–2.170.21–4.87actual4.002.006.00
Shots on target
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.493.788.27safe2.64–6.352.07–5.494.71–11.84safer2.14–6.851.60–5.963.74–12.80
Total shots
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction11.189.3520.54safe7.48–14.895.97–12.7313.46–27.62safer6.45–15.925.04–13.6611.49–29.58
Shots in box
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.833.005.83safe0.32–5.350.69–5.301.01–10.65safer0.00–6.210.00–6.090.00–12.31
Blocked shots
38%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.593.18safe0.00–3.170.18–3.010.18–6.18safer0.00–3.710.00–3.490.00–7.20
Corners
60%
13%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.543.317.85safe2.34–6.751.33–5.293.67–12.04safer1.74–7.340.80–5.832.54–13.17
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction50.5347.91safe44.21–56.8441.59–54.22safer42.61–58.4439.99–55.82
Passes
52%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction410404814safe345–475340–469684–944safer327–493322–486649–979
Pass accuracy %
42%
54%
homeawayprediction68.7269.93safe64.50–72.9365.43–74.44safer63.20–74.2364.10–75.77
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8113.1926.01safe9.96–15.6710.25–16.1420.21–31.81safer9.07–16.569.33–17.0618.40–33.61
Offsides
56%
22%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.183.16safe0.76–3.180.02–2.350.78–5.53safer0.42–3.520.00–2.680.11–6.20
Yellow cards
37%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.883.64safe0.71–2.820.76–3.001.47–5.82safer0.43–3.090.47–3.290.90–6.38
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.050.15safe0.00–0.250.00–0.240.00–0.49safer0.00–0.400.00–0.390.00–0.79
GK saves
44%
19%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.512.344.86safe1.10–3.930.79–3.901.89–7.83safer0.71–4.320.36–4.331.07–8.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.44 0.25–2.70 | 4.00 | 1.06 0.20–1.92 0.00–2.17 | 2.00 | 2.54 0.71–4.36 0.21–4.87 | 6.00 | 47% 26% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.49 2.64–6.35 2.14–6.85 | — | 3.78 2.07–5.49 1.60–5.96 | — | 8.27 4.71–11.84 3.74–12.80 | — | 53% 14% 33% |
| Total shots | 11.18 7.48–14.89 6.45–15.92 | — | 9.35 5.97–12.73 5.04–13.66 | — | 20.54 13.46–27.62 11.49–29.58 | — | 62% 30% |
| Shots in box | 2.83 0.32–5.35 0.00–6.21 | — | 3.00 0.69–5.30 0.00–6.09 | — | 5.83 1.01–10.65 0.00–12.31 | — | 39% 17% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 1.59 0.00–3.17 0.00–3.71 | — | 1.59 0.18–3.01 0.00–3.49 | — | 3.18 0.18–6.18 0.00–7.20 | — | 38% 24% 38% |
| Corners | 4.54 2.34–6.75 1.74–7.34 | — | 3.31 1.33–5.29 0.80–5.83 | — | 7.85 3.67–12.04 2.54–13.17 | — | 60% 13% 27% |
| Possession % | 50.53 44.21–56.84 42.61–58.44 | — | 47.91 41.59–54.22 39.99–55.82 | — | — | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 410 345–475 327–493 | — | 404 340–469 322–486 | — | 814 684–944 649–979 | — | 52% 48% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.72 64.50–72.93 63.20–74.23 | — | 69.93 65.43–74.44 64.10–75.77 | — | — | — | 42% 54% |
| Fouls | 12.81 9.96–15.67 9.07–16.56 | — | 13.19 10.25–16.14 9.33–17.06 | — | 26.01 20.21–31.81 18.40–33.61 | — | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.76–3.18 0.42–3.52 | — | 1.18 0.02–2.35 0.00–2.68 | — | 3.16 0.78–5.53 0.11–6.20 | — | 56% 22% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.82 0.43–3.09 | — | 1.88 0.76–3.00 0.47–3.29 | — | 3.64 1.47–5.82 0.90–6.38 | — | 37% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | — | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.51 1.10–3.93 0.71–4.32 | — | 2.34 0.79–3.90 0.36–4.33 | — | 4.86 1.89–7.83 1.07–8.65 | — | 44% 19% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.