FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
47%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.172.76safe0.63–2.550.31–2.030.94–4.58safer0.37–2.810.06–2.280.43–5.09actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
51%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.804.198.99safe2.94–6.652.48–5.905.42–12.55safer2.44–7.152.01–6.374.46–13.52
Total shots
64%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction11.769.6221.38safe8.06–15.466.24–12.9914.30–28.46safer7.03–16.505.31–13.9312.33–30.42
Shots in box
53%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.082.84safe0.00–4.270.00–3.380.00–7.66safer0.00–5.140.00–4.180.00–9.32
Blocked shots
24%
57%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction0.370.310.68safe0.00–1.950.00–1.720.00–3.68safer0.00–2.490.00–2.210.00–4.70
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.334.219.54safe3.13–7.542.23–6.195.36–13.73safer2.53–8.131.70–6.734.23–14.86
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction52.0147.43safe45.69–58.3241.11–53.75safer44.09–59.9239.51–55.35
Passes
67%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction420367788safe355–486303–432658–917safer337–503285–449622–953
Pass accuracy %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction72.2267.76safe68.00–76.4363.26–72.27safer66.70–77.7461.93–73.60
Fouls
32%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction9.8811.4921.37safe7.02–12.748.54–14.4315.57–27.17safer6.14–13.627.63–15.3513.76–28.97
Offsides
18%
60%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction0.280.320.60safe0.00–1.490.00–1.490.00–2.97safer0.00–1.830.00–1.820.00–3.65
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.732.023.75safe0.67–2.780.90–3.141.57–5.93safer0.40–3.050.61–3.431.01–6.49
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
23%
44%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction0.480.621.10safe0.00–1.890.00–2.170.00–4.07safer0.00–2.280.00–2.600.00–4.89
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 0.63–2.55 0.37–2.81 | 3.00 | 1.17 0.31–2.03 0.06–2.28 | 0.00 | 2.76 0.94–4.58 0.43–5.09 | 3.00 | 47% 25% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.80 2.94–6.65 2.44–7.15 | — | 4.19 2.48–5.90 2.01–6.37 | — | 8.99 5.42–12.55 4.46–13.52 | — | 51% 13% 35% |
| Total shots | 11.76 8.06–15.46 7.03–16.50 | — | 9.62 6.24–12.99 5.31–13.93 | — | 21.38 14.30–28.46 12.33–30.42 | — | 64% 28% |
| Shots in box | 1.76 0.00–4.27 0.00–5.14 | — | 1.08 0.00–3.38 0.00–4.18 | — | 2.84 0.00–7.66 0.00–9.32 | — | 53% 23% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 0.37 0.00–1.95 0.00–2.49 | — | 0.31 0.00–1.72 0.00–2.21 | — | 0.68 0.00–3.68 0.00–4.70 | — | 24% 57% 19% |
| Corners | 5.33 3.13–7.54 2.53–8.13 | — | 4.21 2.23–6.19 1.70–6.73 | — | 9.54 5.36–13.73 4.23–14.86 | — | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 52.01 45.69–58.32 44.09–59.92 | — | 47.43 41.11–53.75 39.51–55.35 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 420 355–486 337–503 | — | 367 303–432 285–449 | — | 788 658–917 622–953 | — | 67% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.22 68.00–76.43 66.70–77.74 | — | 67.76 63.26–72.27 61.93–73.60 | — | — | — | 69% 27% |
| Fouls | 9.88 7.02–12.74 6.14–13.62 | — | 11.49 8.54–14.43 7.63–15.35 | — | 21.37 15.57–27.17 13.76–28.97 | — | 32% 59% |
| Offsides | 0.28 0.00–1.49 0.00–1.83 | — | 0.32 0.00–1.49 0.00–1.82 | — | 0.60 0.00–2.97 0.00–3.65 | — | 18% 60% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.67–2.78 0.40–3.05 | — | 2.02 0.90–3.14 0.61–3.43 | — | 3.75 1.57–5.93 1.01–6.49 | — | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 0.48 0.00–1.89 0.00–2.28 | — | 0.62 0.00–2.17 0.00–2.60 | — | 1.10 0.00–4.07 0.00–4.89 | — | 23% 44% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+