FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
46%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.202.78safe0.62–2.540.34–2.060.95–4.60safer0.36–2.800.09–2.300.45–5.11actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
56%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.713.778.48safe2.85–6.562.07–5.484.92–12.04safer2.35–7.061.60–5.953.95–13.01
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4211.7826.20safe10.72–18.138.40–15.1619.12–33.29safer9.69–19.167.47–16.0917.16–35.25
Shots in box
60%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction6.965.5512.51safe4.44–9.483.25–7.857.70–17.33safer3.58–10.342.45–8.656.03–18.99
Blocked shots
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.012.605.61safe1.42–4.591.18–4.012.61–8.60safer0.89–5.130.70–4.501.59–9.63
Corners
62%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.713.328.02safe2.50–6.911.34–5.303.84–12.21safer1.91–7.510.80–5.832.71–13.34
Possession %
62%
34%
homeawayprediction52.6346.91safe46.31–58.9540.59–53.23safer44.72–60.5538.99–54.82
Passes
67%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction434384817safe369–499319–448687–947safer351–517301–466652–982
Pass accuracy %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction70.7767.05safe66.56–74.9962.55–71.56safer65.25–76.2961.22–72.89
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7311.8924.62safe9.87–15.598.94–14.8318.81–30.42safer8.99–16.478.02–15.7517.01–32.22
Offsides
31%
23%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.833.29safe0.25–2.670.67–2.990.92–5.66safer0.00–3.020.33–3.320.24–6.34
Yellow cards
37%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.943.78safe0.78–2.890.82–3.061.60–5.95safer0.51–3.170.53–3.351.04–6.52
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.050.16safe0.00–0.260.00–0.240.00–0.51safer0.00–0.410.00–0.390.00–0.80
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.752.955.70safe1.34–4.161.39–4.502.73–8.66safer0.95–4.550.96–4.931.91–9.49
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 0.62–2.54 0.36–2.80 | 1.00 | 1.20 0.34–2.06 0.09–2.30 | 0.00 | 2.78 0.95–4.60 0.45–5.11 | 1.00 | 46% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.71 2.85–6.56 2.35–7.06 | — | 3.77 2.07–5.48 1.60–5.95 | — | 8.48 4.92–12.04 3.95–13.01 | — | 56% 13% 31% |
| Total shots | 14.42 10.72–18.13 9.69–19.16 | — | 11.78 8.40–15.16 7.47–16.09 | — | 26.20 19.12–33.29 17.16–35.25 | — | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 6.96 4.44–9.48 3.58–10.34 | — | 5.55 3.25–7.85 2.45–8.65 | — | 12.51 7.70–17.33 6.03–18.99 | — | 60% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.01 1.42–4.59 0.89–5.13 | — | 2.60 1.18–4.01 0.70–4.50 | — | 5.61 2.61–8.60 1.59–9.63 | — | 48% 17% 35% |
| Corners | 4.71 2.50–6.91 1.91–7.51 | — | 3.32 1.34–5.30 0.80–5.83 | — | 8.02 3.84–12.21 2.71–13.34 | — | 62% 25% |
| Possession % | 52.63 46.31–58.95 44.72–60.55 | — | 46.91 40.59–53.23 38.99–54.82 | — | — | — | 62% 34% |
| Passes | 434 369–499 351–517 | — | 384 319–448 301–466 | — | 817 687–947 652–982 | — | 67% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.77 66.56–74.99 65.25–76.29 | — | 67.05 62.55–71.56 61.22–72.89 | — | — | — | 66% 30% |
| Fouls | 12.73 9.87–15.59 8.99–16.47 | — | 11.89 8.94–14.83 8.02–15.75 | — | 24.62 18.81–30.42 17.01–32.22 | — | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.25–2.67 0.00–3.02 | — | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.33–3.32 | — | 3.29 0.92–5.66 0.24–6.34 | — | 31% 23% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.78–2.89 0.51–3.17 | — | 1.94 0.82–3.06 0.53–3.35 | — | 3.78 1.60–5.95 1.04–6.52 | — | 37% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.75 1.34–4.16 0.95–4.55 | — | 2.95 1.39–4.50 0.96–4.93 | — | 5.70 2.73–8.66 1.91–9.49 | — | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.