FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
44%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.202.68safe0.52–2.450.34–2.060.86–4.51safer0.26–2.710.09–2.310.35–5.01actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.073.868.93safe3.21–6.932.15–5.565.36–12.49safer2.72–7.431.68–6.034.40–13.46
Total shots
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction12.078.8720.94safe8.36–15.775.49–12.2513.86–28.02safer7.33–16.804.56–13.1811.90–29.98
Shots in box
43%
33%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.060.711.76safe0.00–3.570.00–3.010.00–6.58safer0.00–4.440.00–3.810.00–8.24
Blocked shots
23%
57%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction0.360.310.67safe0.00–1.940.00–1.720.00–3.67safer0.00–2.480.00–2.210.00–4.69
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.504.339.83safe3.29–7.702.35–6.305.64–14.01safer2.70–8.301.81–6.844.51–15.14
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction49.5449.90safe43.23–55.8643.58–56.22safer41.63–57.4641.98–57.81
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction399377776safe333–464313–442646–906safer316–482295–460611–941
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction71.4369.67safe67.21–75.6565.16–74.17safer65.91–76.9563.83–75.50
Fouls
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7515.2928.04safe9.90–15.6112.34–18.2322.24–33.84safer9.01–16.5011.42–19.1520.44–35.65
Offsides
26%
36%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction0.670.871.54safe0.00–1.880.00–2.030.00–3.91safer0.00–2.230.00–2.360.00–4.59
Yellow cards
36%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.993.83safe0.78–2.890.87–3.111.66–6.01safer0.51–3.170.58–3.401.09–6.57
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.060.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
33%
24%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.612.98safe0.00–2.790.05–3.160.01–5.95safer0.00–3.180.00–3.590.00–6.77
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.52–2.45 0.26–2.71 | 2.00 | 1.20 0.34–2.06 0.09–2.31 | 0.00 | 2.68 0.86–4.51 0.35–5.01 | 2.00 | 44% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.07 3.21–6.93 2.72–7.43 | — | 3.86 2.15–5.56 1.68–6.03 | — | 8.93 5.36–12.49 4.40–13.46 | — | 59% 28% |
| Total shots | 12.07 8.36–15.77 7.33–16.80 | — | 8.87 5.49–12.25 4.56–13.18 | — | 20.94 13.86–28.02 11.90–29.98 | — | 72% 21% |
| Shots in box | 1.06 0.00–3.57 0.00–4.44 | — | 0.71 0.00–3.01 0.00–3.81 | — | 1.76 0.00–6.58 0.00–8.24 | — | 43% 33% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 0.36 0.00–1.94 0.00–2.48 | — | 0.31 0.00–1.72 0.00–2.21 | — | 0.67 0.00–3.67 0.00–4.69 | — | 23% 57% 20% |
| Corners | 5.50 3.29–7.70 2.70–8.30 | — | 4.33 2.35–6.30 1.81–6.84 | — | 9.83 5.64–14.01 4.51–15.14 | — | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 49.54 43.23–55.86 41.63–57.46 | — | 49.90 43.58–56.22 41.98–57.81 | — | — | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 399 333–464 316–482 | — | 377 313–442 295–460 | — | 776 646–906 611–941 | — | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.43 67.21–75.65 65.91–76.95 | — | 69.67 65.16–74.17 63.83–75.50 | — | — | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 12.75 9.90–15.61 9.01–16.50 | — | 15.29 12.34–18.23 11.42–19.15 | — | 28.04 22.24–33.84 20.44–35.65 | — | 28% 65% |
| Offsides | 0.67 0.00–1.88 0.00–2.23 | — | 0.87 0.00–2.03 0.00–2.36 | — | 1.54 0.00–3.91 0.00–4.59 | — | 26% 36% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.78–2.89 0.51–3.17 | — | 1.99 0.87–3.11 0.58–3.40 | — | 3.83 1.66–6.01 1.09–6.57 | — | 36% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 1.37 0.00–2.79 0.00–3.18 | — | 1.61 0.05–3.16 0.00–3.59 | — | 2.98 0.01–5.95 0.00–6.77 | — | 33% 24% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.