FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
48%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.082.63safe0.59–2.520.22–1.940.81–4.46safer0.33–2.780.00–2.180.30–4.96actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.934.068.99safe3.08–6.792.35–5.775.43–12.55safer2.58–7.291.88–6.234.46–13.52
Total shots
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7410.5222.26safe8.04–15.447.14–13.9015.18–29.34safer7.01–16.476.21–14.8313.22–31.30
Shots in box
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.113.366.47safe0.59–5.631.06–5.671.66–11.29safer0.00–6.490.27–6.460.00–12.95
Blocked shots
36%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.693.28safe0.01–3.180.27–3.100.28–6.28safer0.00–3.710.00–3.590.00–7.30
Corners
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.453.568.00safe2.24–6.651.58–5.533.82–12.19safer1.65–7.251.04–6.072.69–13.32
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction50.5648.41safe44.24–56.8742.09–54.72safer42.64–58.4740.49–56.32
Passes
63%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction424385808safe359–489320–449679–938safer341–507302–467643–974
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction72.4370.14safe68.22–76.6565.63–74.65safer66.92–77.9564.30–75.98
Fouls
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7712.4524.22safe8.91–14.629.51–15.4018.41–30.02safer8.02–15.518.59–16.3116.61–31.82
Offsides
59%
19%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.461.483.95safe1.25–3.670.32–2.651.57–6.32safer0.91–4.020.00–2.980.90–6.99
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.863.50safe0.59–2.700.74–2.981.33–5.68safer0.32–2.970.45–3.270.77–6.24
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.050.13safe0.00–0.240.00–0.240.00–0.48safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
40%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.682.755.43safe1.26–4.091.19–4.302.46–8.39safer0.87–4.480.76–4.731.64–9.22
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 0.59–2.52 0.33–2.78 | 2.00 | 1.08 0.22–1.94 0.00–2.18 | 1.00 | 2.63 0.81–4.46 0.30–4.96 | 3.00 | 48% 25% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.93 3.08–6.79 2.58–7.29 | — | 4.06 2.35–5.77 1.88–6.23 | — | 8.99 5.43–12.55 4.46–13.52 | — | 55% 32% |
| Total shots | 11.74 8.04–15.44 7.01–16.47 | — | 10.52 7.14–13.90 6.21–14.83 | — | 22.26 15.18–29.34 13.22–31.30 | — | 56% 36% |
| Shots in box | 3.11 0.59–5.63 0.00–6.49 | — | 3.36 1.06–5.67 0.27–6.46 | — | 6.47 1.66–11.29 0.00–12.95 | — | 38% 16% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 1.59 0.01–3.18 0.00–3.71 | — | 1.69 0.27–3.10 0.00–3.59 | — | 3.28 0.28–6.28 0.00–7.30 | — | 36% 23% 40% |
| Corners | 4.45 2.24–6.65 1.65–7.25 | — | 3.56 1.58–5.53 1.04–6.07 | — | 8.00 3.82–12.19 2.69–13.32 | — | 55% 14% 31% |
| Possession % | 50.56 44.24–56.87 42.64–58.47 | — | 48.41 42.09–54.72 40.49–56.32 | — | — | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 424 359–489 341–507 | — | 385 320–449 302–467 | — | 808 679–938 643–974 | — | 63% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.43 68.22–76.65 66.92–77.95 | — | 70.14 65.63–74.65 64.30–75.98 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 11.77 8.91–14.62 8.02–15.51 | — | 12.45 9.51–15.40 8.59–16.31 | — | 24.22 18.41–30.02 16.61–31.82 | — | 40% 51% |
| Offsides | 2.46 1.25–3.67 0.91–4.02 | — | 1.48 0.32–2.65 0.00–2.98 | — | 3.95 1.57–6.32 0.90–6.99 | — | 59% 19% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.70 0.32–2.97 | — | 1.86 0.74–2.98 0.45–3.27 | — | 3.50 1.33–5.68 0.77–6.24 | — | 35% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | — | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.26–4.09 0.87–4.48 | — | 2.75 1.19–4.30 0.76–4.73 | — | 5.43 2.46–8.39 1.64–9.22 | — | 40% 18% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.