FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
37%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.332.68safe0.38–2.310.47–2.190.85–4.50safer0.12–2.570.22–2.440.35–5.00actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.764.218.97safe2.91–6.622.50–5.925.41–12.54safer2.41–7.122.03–6.394.44–13.50
Total shots
63%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction10.888.9319.81safe7.18–14.595.55–12.3112.73–26.89safer6.15–15.624.62–13.2410.77–28.85
Shots in box
47%
24%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.282.96safe0.00–4.190.00–3.580.00–7.78safer0.00–5.060.00–4.380.00–9.44
Blocked shots
33%
50%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction0.540.310.86safe0.00–2.130.00–1.730.00–3.86safer0.00–2.660.00–2.210.00–4.88
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.324.479.79safe3.11–7.522.49–6.455.60–13.97safer2.52–8.121.95–6.984.47–15.10
Possession %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction51.5447.36safe45.22–57.8641.04–53.68safer43.63–59.4539.45–55.28
Passes
55%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction407390797safe341–472326–455667–927safer324–490308–472632–962
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction70.9168.55safe66.70–75.1364.04–73.06safer65.39–76.4362.71–74.39
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7913.3426.13safe9.93–15.6510.39–16.2820.33–31.93safer9.05–16.539.48–17.2018.52–33.74
Offsides
53%
26%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.520.852.37safe0.31–2.730.00–2.010.00–4.74safer0.00–3.080.00–2.340.00–5.42
Yellow cards
32%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.823.33safe0.45–2.560.70–2.941.15–5.51safer0.18–2.840.41–3.230.59–6.07
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
46%
18%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.602.314.92safe1.19–4.020.76–3.871.95–7.89safer0.80–4.410.33–4.301.13–8.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.31 0.12–2.57 | 1.00 | 1.33 0.47–2.19 0.22–2.44 | 3.00 | 2.68 0.85–4.50 0.35–5.00 | 4.00 | 37% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.76 2.91–6.62 2.41–7.12 | — | 4.21 2.50–5.92 2.03–6.39 | — | 8.97 5.41–12.54 4.44–13.50 | — | 51% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 10.88 7.18–14.59 6.15–15.62 | — | 8.93 5.55–12.31 4.62–13.24 | — | 19.81 12.73–26.89 10.77–28.85 | — | 63% 29% |
| Shots in box | 1.68 0.00–4.19 0.00–5.06 | — | 1.28 0.00–3.58 0.00–4.38 | — | 2.96 0.00–7.78 0.00–9.44 | — | 47% 24% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 0.54 0.00–2.13 0.00–2.66 | — | 0.31 0.00–1.73 0.00–2.21 | — | 0.86 0.00–3.86 0.00–4.88 | — | 33% 50% 17% |
| Corners | 5.32 3.11–7.52 2.52–8.12 | — | 4.47 2.49–6.45 1.95–6.98 | — | 9.79 5.60–13.97 4.47–15.10 | — | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 51.54 45.22–57.86 43.63–59.45 | — | 47.36 41.04–53.68 39.45–55.28 | — | — | — | 58% 37% |
| Passes | 407 341–472 324–490 | — | 390 326–455 308–472 | — | 797 667–927 632–962 | — | 55% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.91 66.70–75.13 65.39–76.43 | — | 68.55 64.04–73.06 62.71–74.39 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 12.79 9.93–15.65 9.05–16.53 | — | 13.34 10.39–16.28 9.48–17.20 | — | 26.13 20.33–31.93 18.52–33.74 | — | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.31–2.73 0.00–3.08 | — | 0.85 0.00–2.01 0.00–2.34 | — | 2.37 0.00–4.74 0.00–5.42 | — | 53% 26% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.45–2.56 0.18–2.84 | — | 1.82 0.70–2.94 0.41–3.23 | — | 3.33 1.15–5.51 0.59–6.07 | — | 32% 23% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.60 1.19–4.02 0.80–4.41 | — | 2.31 0.76–3.87 0.33–4.30 | — | 4.92 1.95–7.89 1.13–8.71 | — | 46% 18% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+