FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
62%
21%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction1.940.882.82safe0.98–2.900.02–1.740.99–4.64safer0.72–3.160.00–1.980.49–5.14actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
83%
homeawaytotalprediction5.762.578.33safe3.90–7.620.86–4.274.76–11.89safer3.41–8.120.39–4.743.80–12.86
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction12.556.3618.91safe8.85–16.252.98–9.7311.82–25.99safer7.82–17.282.05–10.679.86–27.95
Shots in box
36%
42%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction0.700.471.17safe0.00–3.220.00–2.770.00–5.98safer0.00–4.080.00–3.560.00–7.65
Blocked shots
24%
58%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction0.360.270.63safe0.00–1.940.00–1.690.00–3.63safer0.00–2.480.00–2.170.00–4.65
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.143.349.48safe3.94–8.351.36–5.325.30–13.66safer3.34–8.940.82–5.854.16–14.79
Possession %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction52.8245.95safe46.50–59.1439.63–52.27safer44.90–60.7338.04–53.87
Passes
51%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction385381767safe320–451317–446637–896safer302–468299–463601–932
Pass accuracy %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction69.1170.09safe64.89–73.3265.59–74.60safer63.59–74.6364.26–75.93
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8614.0528.91safe12.00–17.7211.11–17.0023.11–34.71safer11.12–18.6010.19–17.9121.31–36.52
Offsides
24%
49%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction0.430.480.91safe0.00–1.640.00–1.640.00–3.29safer0.00–1.990.00–1.980.00–3.96
Yellow cards
34%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.793.34safe0.50–2.610.67–2.911.16–5.52safer0.23–2.880.38–3.200.60–6.08
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.060.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.250.00–0.50safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
33%
33%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction0.870.901.78safe0.00–2.290.00–2.460.00–4.75safer0.00–2.680.00–2.890.00–5.57
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.94 0.98–2.90 0.72–3.16 | 0.00 | 0.88 0.02–1.74 0.00–1.98 | 2.00 | 2.82 0.99–4.64 0.49–5.14 | 2.00 | 62% 21% 16% |
| Shots on target | 5.76 3.90–7.62 3.41–8.12 | — | 2.57 0.86–4.27 0.39–4.74 | — | 8.33 4.76–11.89 3.80–12.86 | — | 83% |
| Total shots | 12.55 8.85–16.25 7.82–17.28 | — | 6.36 2.98–9.73 2.05–10.67 | — | 18.91 11.82–25.99 9.86–27.95 | — | 91% |
| Shots in box | 0.70 0.00–3.22 0.00–4.08 | — | 0.47 0.00–2.77 0.00–3.56 | — | 1.17 0.00–5.98 0.00–7.65 | — | 36% 42% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 0.36 0.00–1.94 0.00–2.48 | — | 0.27 0.00–1.69 0.00–2.17 | — | 0.63 0.00–3.63 0.00–4.65 | — | 24% 58% 17% |
| Corners | 6.14 3.94–8.35 3.34–8.94 | — | 3.34 1.36–5.32 0.82–5.85 | — | 9.48 5.30–13.66 4.16–14.79 | — | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 52.82 46.50–59.14 44.90–60.73 | — | 45.95 39.63–52.27 38.04–53.87 | — | — | — | 64% 31% |
| Passes | 385 320–451 302–468 | — | 381 317–446 299–463 | — | 767 637–896 601–932 | — | 51% 48% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.11 64.89–73.32 63.59–74.63 | — | 70.09 65.59–74.60 64.26–75.93 | — | — | — | 43% 52% |
| Fouls | 14.86 12.00–17.72 11.12–18.60 | — | 14.05 11.11–17.00 10.19–17.91 | — | 28.91 23.11–34.71 21.31–36.52 | — | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 0.43 0.00–1.64 0.00–1.99 | — | 0.48 0.00–1.64 0.00–1.98 | — | 0.91 0.00–3.29 0.00–3.96 | — | 24% 49% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.61 0.23–2.88 | — | 1.79 0.67–2.91 0.38–3.20 | — | 3.34 1.16–5.52 0.60–6.08 | — | 34% 23% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | — | 87% |
| GK saves | 0.87 0.00–2.29 0.00–2.68 | — | 0.90 0.00–2.46 0.00–2.89 | — | 1.78 0.00–4.75 0.00–5.57 | — | 33% 33% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.