FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
54%
24%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.012.74safe0.77–2.700.15–1.860.92–4.56safer0.51–2.960.00–2.110.41–5.07actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
85%
homeawaytotalprediction4.701.626.31safe2.84–6.550.00–3.322.75–9.88safer2.34–7.050.00–3.791.78–10.85
Total shots
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction10.797.1417.93safe7.08–14.493.76–10.5210.85–25.01safer6.05–15.522.83–11.458.89–26.97
Shots in box
85%
homeawaytotalprediction6.562.959.51safe4.04–9.070.65–5.254.69–14.32safer3.18–9.940.00–6.053.03–15.99
Blocked shots
61%
18%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.631.524.15safe1.05–4.220.10–2.931.15–7.15safer0.51–4.750.00–3.420.13–8.17
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.844.2610.10safe3.63–8.042.28–6.245.91–14.28safer3.04–8.641.74–6.774.78–15.41
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction53.7944.69safe47.47–60.1138.37–51.01safer45.88–61.7136.78–52.61
Passes
68%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction394339733safe329–460274–403603–863safer312–477257–421568–898
Pass accuracy %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction69.8964.67safe65.68–74.1160.17–69.18safer64.38–75.4158.84–70.51
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2312.0322.26safe7.38–13.099.08–14.9716.46–28.06safer6.49–13.988.16–15.8914.65–29.87
Offsides
54%
19%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.411.674.08safe1.21–3.620.50–2.831.71–6.45safer0.86–3.970.17–3.161.03–7.13
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.983.73safe0.69–2.800.86–3.101.55–5.90safer0.42–3.070.57–3.390.99–6.46
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.080.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
22%
16%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.043.255.29safe0.62–3.451.70–4.812.32–8.26safer0.23–3.841.27–5.241.50–9.08
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.77–2.70 0.51–2.96 | 2.00 | 1.01 0.15–1.86 0.00–2.11 | 1.00 | 2.74 0.92–4.56 0.41–5.07 | 3.00 | 54% 24% 22% |
| Shots on target | 4.70 2.84–6.55 2.34–7.05 | — | 1.62 0.00–3.32 0.00–3.79 | — | 6.31 2.75–9.88 1.78–10.85 | — | 85% |
| Total shots | 10.79 7.08–14.49 6.05–15.52 | — | 7.14 3.76–10.52 2.83–11.45 | — | 17.93 10.85–25.01 8.89–26.97 | — | 77% 16% |
| Shots in box | 6.56 4.04–9.07 3.18–9.94 | — | 2.95 0.65–5.25 0.00–6.05 | — | 9.51 4.69–14.32 3.03–15.99 | — | 85% |
| Blocked shots | 2.63 1.05–4.22 0.51–4.75 | — | 1.52 0.10–2.93 0.00–3.42 | — | 4.15 1.15–7.15 0.13–8.17 | — | 61% 18% 21% |
| Corners | 5.84 3.63–8.04 3.04–8.64 | — | 4.26 2.28–6.24 1.74–6.77 | — | 10.10 5.91–14.28 4.78–15.41 | — | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 53.79 47.47–60.11 45.88–61.71 | — | 44.69 38.37–51.01 36.78–52.61 | — | — | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 394 329–460 312–477 | — | 339 274–403 257–421 | — | 733 603–863 568–898 | — | 68% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.89 65.68–74.11 64.38–75.41 | — | 64.67 60.17–69.18 58.84–70.51 | — | — | — | 72% 24% |
| Fouls | 10.23 7.38–13.09 6.49–13.98 | — | 12.03 9.08–14.97 8.16–15.89 | — | 22.26 16.46–28.06 14.65–29.87 | — | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 2.41 1.21–3.62 0.86–3.97 | — | 1.67 0.50–2.83 0.17–3.16 | — | 4.08 1.71–6.45 1.03–7.13 | — | 54% 19% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.69–2.80 0.42–3.07 | — | 1.98 0.86–3.10 0.57–3.39 | — | 3.73 1.55–5.90 0.99–6.46 | — | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.04 0.62–3.45 0.23–3.84 | — | 3.25 1.70–4.81 1.27–5.24 | — | 5.29 2.32–8.26 1.50–9.08 | — | 22% 16% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+