FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
24%
26%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.001.542.54safe0.03–1.960.68–2.400.72–4.36safer0.00–2.220.44–2.650.21–4.87actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
14%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction3.085.708.78safe1.23–4.943.99–7.415.22–12.35safer0.73–5.443.52–7.874.25–13.31
Total shots
22%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction8.9811.9620.93safe5.27–12.688.58–15.3413.85–28.01safer4.24–13.717.65–16.2711.89–29.98
Shots in box
87%
homeawaytotalprediction4.188.5912.77safe1.66–6.696.29–10.897.95–17.59safer0.80–7.565.49–11.696.29–19.25
Blocked shots
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.763.486.24safe1.17–4.342.07–4.903.24–9.24safer0.64–4.881.58–5.382.22–10.26
Corners
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.723.907.62safe1.51–5.921.92–5.883.43–11.80safer0.92–6.521.38–6.412.30–12.93
Possession %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction43.3255.25safe37.00–49.6448.93–61.57safer35.41–51.2447.33–63.16
Passes
25%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction351430781safe286–416366–495651–911safer268–434348–512616–946
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction62.6072.10safe58.38–66.8167.59–76.61safer57.08–68.1266.26–77.94
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5213.5726.09safe9.66–15.3810.62–16.5120.29–31.89safer8.78–16.269.70–17.4318.48–33.69
Offsides
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.833.39safe0.35–2.770.67–3.001.02–5.76safer0.00–3.110.34–3.330.34–6.44
Yellow cards
36%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.903.62safe0.66–2.780.77–3.021.44–5.79safer0.39–3.050.48–3.310.88–6.35
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.050.15safe0.00–0.260.00–0.240.00–0.50safer0.00–0.410.00–0.390.00–0.80
GK saves
38%
19%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.282.434.71safe0.86–3.690.88–3.991.74–7.68safer0.47–4.080.45–4.420.92–8.50
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.00 0.03–1.96 0.00–2.22 | 0.00 | 1.54 0.68–2.40 0.44–2.65 | 2.00 | 2.54 0.72–4.36 0.21–4.87 | 2.00 | 24% 26% 50% |
| Shots on target | 3.08 1.23–4.94 0.73–5.44 | — | 5.70 3.99–7.41 3.52–7.87 | — | 8.78 5.22–12.35 4.25–13.31 | — | 14% 76% |
| Total shots | 8.98 5.27–12.68 4.24–13.71 | — | 11.96 8.58–15.34 7.65–16.27 | — | 20.93 13.85–28.01 11.89–29.98 | — | 22% 71% |
| Shots in box | 4.18 1.66–6.69 0.80–7.56 | — | 8.59 6.29–10.89 5.49–11.69 | — | 12.77 7.95–17.59 6.29–19.25 | — | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 2.76 1.17–4.34 0.64–4.88 | — | 3.48 2.07–4.90 1.58–5.38 | — | 6.24 3.24–9.24 2.22–10.26 | — | 31% 16% 53% |
| Corners | 3.72 1.51–5.92 0.92–6.52 | — | 3.90 1.92–5.88 1.38–6.41 | — | 7.62 3.43–11.80 2.30–12.93 | — | 40% 15% 45% |
| Possession % | 43.32 37.00–49.64 35.41–51.24 | — | 55.25 48.93–61.57 47.33–63.16 | — | — | — | 21% 75% |
| Passes | 351 286–416 268–434 | — | 430 366–495 348–512 | — | 781 651–911 616–946 | — | 25% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.60 58.38–66.81 57.08–68.12 | — | 72.10 67.59–76.61 66.26–77.94 | — | — | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 12.52 9.66–15.38 8.78–16.26 | — | 13.57 10.62–16.51 9.70–17.43 | — | 26.09 20.29–31.89 18.48–33.69 | — | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.56 0.35–2.77 0.00–3.11 | — | 1.83 0.67–3.00 0.34–3.33 | — | 3.39 1.02–5.76 0.34–6.44 | — | 33% 22% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.66–2.78 0.39–3.05 | — | 1.90 0.77–3.02 0.48–3.31 | — | 3.62 1.44–5.79 0.88–6.35 | — | 36% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.28 0.86–3.69 0.47–4.08 | — | 2.43 0.88–3.99 0.45–4.42 | — | 4.71 1.74–7.68 0.92–8.50 | — | 38% 19% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.