FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
32%
24%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.592.92safe0.37–2.300.73–2.451.10–4.74safer0.11–2.560.48–2.690.59–5.25actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
57%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.493.487.97safe2.63–6.341.78–5.194.41–11.53safer2.13–6.841.31–5.663.44–12.50
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8310.2822.12safe8.13–15.546.91–13.6615.04–29.20safer7.10–16.575.97–14.5913.07–31.16
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction8.327.7316.05safe5.81–10.845.43–10.0311.23–20.87safer4.94–11.704.63–10.839.57–22.53
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.833.437.26safe2.25–5.422.02–4.854.26–10.26safer1.71–5.951.53–5.333.24–11.28
Corners
39%
13%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.434.809.22safe2.22–6.632.82–6.785.04–13.41safer1.63–7.232.28–7.313.91–14.54
Possession %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction43.1557.23safe36.83–49.4650.91–63.55safer35.23–51.0649.32–65.15
Passes
16%
84%
homeawaytotalprediction321435756safe256–386371–500626–886safer238–404353–517591–921
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction65.5273.73safe61.31–69.7469.22–78.23safer60.00–71.0467.89–79.57
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7312.4424.17safe8.87–14.589.49–15.3818.36–29.97safer7.98–15.478.58–16.3016.56–31.77
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.803.46safe0.45–2.870.64–2.961.09–5.83safer0.10–3.210.31–3.300.41–6.51
Yellow cards
42%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.823.77safe0.90–3.010.70–2.941.60–5.95safer0.63–3.280.41–3.231.04–6.51
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
34%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.462.885.34safe1.05–3.881.33–4.432.38–8.31safer0.66–4.270.90–4.871.55–9.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.30 0.11–2.56 | 1.00 | 1.59 0.73–2.45 0.48–2.69 | 3.00 | 2.92 1.10–4.74 0.59–5.25 | 4.00 | 32% 24% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.49 2.63–6.34 2.13–6.84 | — | 3.48 1.78–5.19 1.31–5.66 | — | 7.97 4.41–11.53 3.44–12.50 | — | 57% 14% 30% |
| Total shots | 11.83 8.13–15.54 7.10–16.57 | — | 10.28 6.91–13.66 5.97–14.59 | — | 22.12 15.04–29.20 13.07–31.16 | — | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.32 5.81–10.84 4.94–11.70 | — | 7.73 5.43–10.03 4.63–10.83 | — | 16.05 11.23–20.87 9.57–22.53 | — | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.83 2.25–5.42 1.71–5.95 | — | 3.43 2.02–4.85 1.53–5.33 | — | 7.26 4.26–10.26 3.24–11.28 | — | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 4.43 2.22–6.63 1.63–7.23 | — | 4.80 2.82–6.78 2.28–7.31 | — | 9.22 5.04–13.41 3.91–14.54 | — | 39% 13% 48% |
| Possession % | 43.15 36.83–49.46 35.23–51.06 | — | 57.23 50.91–63.55 49.32–65.15 | — | — | — | 17% 80% |
| Passes | 321 256–386 238–404 | — | 435 371–500 353–517 | — | 756 626–886 591–921 | — | 16% 84% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.52 61.31–69.74 60.00–71.04 | — | 73.73 69.22–78.23 67.89–79.57 | — | — | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 11.73 8.87–14.58 7.98–15.47 | — | 12.44 9.49–15.38 8.58–16.30 | — | 24.17 18.36–29.97 16.56–31.77 | — | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.45–2.87 0.10–3.21 | — | 1.80 0.64–2.96 0.31–3.30 | — | 3.46 1.09–5.83 0.41–6.51 | — | 36% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.90–3.01 0.63–3.28 | — | 1.82 0.70–2.94 0.41–3.23 | — | 3.77 1.60–5.95 1.04–6.51 | — | 42% 21% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | — | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.46 1.05–3.88 0.66–4.27 | — | 2.88 1.33–4.43 0.90–4.87 | — | 5.34 2.38–8.31 1.55–9.13 | — | 34% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.