FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
51%
25%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.560.972.53safe0.59–2.520.11–1.830.71–4.35safer0.33–2.780.00–2.080.20–4.86actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.583.358.93safe3.73–7.441.64–5.065.37–12.50safer3.23–7.941.18–5.534.40–13.46
Total shots
95%
homeawaytotalprediction18.129.2827.40safe14.42–21.825.90–12.6620.32–34.48safer13.39–22.864.97–13.5918.36–36.45
Shots in box
17%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction2.784.857.63safe0.26–5.292.55–7.162.81–12.45safer0.00–6.161.76–7.951.15–14.11
Blocked shots
23%
19%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.482.433.91safe0.00–3.061.01–3.840.91–6.91safer0.00–3.600.53–4.330.00–7.93
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.353.7610.11safe4.15–8.561.78–5.745.93–14.30safer3.55–9.151.25–6.284.80–15.43
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction54.4144.81safe48.09–60.7338.49–51.13safer46.50–62.3336.89–52.73
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction431338769safe366–497274–403640–899safer348–514256–420604–935
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction69.8367.63safe65.62–74.0563.13–72.14safer64.32–75.3561.79–73.47
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6812.8024.48safe8.82–14.549.86–15.7518.68–30.28safer7.94–15.428.94–16.6616.87–32.09
Offsides
33%
24%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.623.02safe0.20–2.620.45–2.780.65–5.40safer0.00–2.960.12–3.110.00–6.07
Yellow cards
31%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.612.013.63safe0.56–2.670.89–3.131.45–5.80safer0.28–2.940.60–3.420.89–6.36
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.060.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.262.975.22safe0.84–3.671.41–4.522.25–8.19safer0.45–4.060.98–4.951.43–9.01
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 0.59–2.52 0.33–2.78 | 3.00 | 0.97 0.11–1.83 0.00–2.08 | 0.00 | 2.53 0.71–4.35 0.20–4.86 | 3.00 | 51% 25% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.58 3.73–7.44 3.23–7.94 | — | 3.35 1.64–5.06 1.18–5.53 | — | 8.93 5.37–12.50 4.40–13.46 | — | 72% 18% |
| Total shots | 18.12 14.42–21.82 13.39–22.86 | — | 9.28 5.90–12.66 4.97–13.59 | — | 27.40 20.32–34.48 18.36–36.45 | — | 95% |
| Shots in box | 2.78 0.26–5.29 0.00–6.16 | — | 4.85 2.55–7.16 1.76–7.95 | — | 7.63 2.81–12.45 1.15–14.11 | — | 17% 72% |
| Blocked shots | 1.48 0.00–3.06 0.00–3.60 | — | 2.43 1.01–3.84 0.53–4.33 | — | 3.91 0.91–6.91 0.00–7.93 | — | 23% 19% 58% |
| Corners | 6.35 4.15–8.56 3.55–9.15 | — | 3.76 1.78–5.74 1.25–6.28 | — | 10.11 5.93–14.30 4.80–15.43 | — | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 54.41 48.09–60.73 46.50–62.33 | — | 44.81 38.49–51.13 36.89–52.73 | — | — | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 431 366–497 348–514 | — | 338 274–403 256–420 | — | 769 640–899 604–935 | — | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.83 65.62–74.05 64.32–75.35 | — | 67.63 63.13–72.14 61.79–73.47 | — | — | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 11.68 8.82–14.54 7.94–15.42 | — | 12.80 9.86–15.75 8.94–16.66 | — | 24.48 18.68–30.28 16.87–32.09 | — | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.41 0.20–2.62 0.00–2.96 | — | 1.62 0.45–2.78 0.12–3.11 | — | 3.02 0.65–5.40 0.00–6.07 | — | 33% 24% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.67 0.28–2.94 | — | 2.01 0.89–3.13 0.60–3.42 | — | 3.63 1.45–5.80 0.89–6.36 | — | 31% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | — | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.26 0.84–3.67 0.45–4.06 | — | 2.97 1.41–4.52 0.98–4.95 | — | 5.22 2.25–8.19 1.43–9.01 | — | 30% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.