FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.152.66safe0.54–2.460.29–2.010.83–4.48safer0.28–2.720.05–2.260.33–4.98actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
49%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.574.158.73safe2.72–6.432.45–5.865.16–12.29safer2.22–6.931.98–6.334.20–13.26
Total shots
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6010.2421.84safe7.90–15.316.86–13.6214.76–28.93safer6.87–16.345.93–14.5512.80–30.89
Shots in box
54%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.112.92safe0.00–4.330.00–3.420.00–7.74safer0.00–5.190.00–4.210.00–9.40
Blocked shots
23%
55%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction0.370.340.72safe0.00–1.960.00–1.760.00–3.71safer0.00–2.490.00–2.240.00–4.73
Corners
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.894.489.37safe2.68–7.102.51–6.465.19–13.56safer2.09–7.691.97–7.004.06–14.69
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.1449.88safe42.82–55.4643.56–56.20safer41.23–57.0541.96–57.79
Passes
56%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction386367753safe320–451303–432623–883safer303–469285–450588–918
Pass accuracy %
49%
47%
homeawayprediction68.6368.43safe64.41–72.8563.92–72.93safer63.11–74.1562.59–74.26
Fouls
36%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5613.9626.53safe9.71–15.4211.02–16.9120.72–32.33safer8.82–16.3110.10–17.8218.92–34.13
Offsides
27%
35%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction0.710.901.61safe0.00–1.920.00–2.060.00–3.98safer0.00–2.270.00–2.390.00–4.66
Yellow cards
34%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.923.58safe0.60–2.710.80–3.041.40–5.76safer0.33–2.980.51–3.330.84–6.32
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.060.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.250.00–0.50safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
32%
25%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.582.90safe0.00–2.730.03–3.140.00–5.87safer0.00–3.120.00–3.570.00–6.69
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.54–2.46 0.28–2.72 | 1.00 | 1.15 0.29–2.01 0.05–2.26 | 3.00 | 2.66 0.83–4.48 0.33–4.98 | 4.00 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.57 2.72–6.43 2.22–6.93 | — | 4.15 2.45–5.86 1.98–6.33 | — | 8.73 5.16–12.29 4.20–13.26 | — | 49% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 11.60 7.90–15.31 6.87–16.34 | — | 10.24 6.86–13.62 5.93–14.55 | — | 21.84 14.76–28.93 12.80–30.89 | — | 57% 35% |
| Shots in box | 1.81 0.00–4.33 0.00–5.19 | — | 1.11 0.00–3.42 0.00–4.21 | — | 2.92 0.00–7.74 0.00–9.40 | — | 54% 23% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 0.37 0.00–1.96 0.00–2.49 | — | 0.34 0.00–1.76 0.00–2.24 | — | 0.72 0.00–3.71 0.00–4.73 | — | 23% 55% 21% |
| Corners | 4.89 2.68–7.10 2.09–7.69 | — | 4.48 2.51–6.46 1.97–7.00 | — | 9.37 5.19–13.56 4.06–14.69 | — | 49% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 49.14 42.82–55.46 41.23–57.05 | — | 49.88 43.56–56.20 41.96–57.79 | — | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 386 320–451 303–469 | — | 367 303–432 285–450 | — | 753 623–883 588–918 | — | 56% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.63 64.41–72.85 63.11–74.15 | — | 68.43 63.92–72.93 62.59–74.26 | — | — | — | 49% 47% |
| Fouls | 12.56 9.71–15.42 8.82–16.31 | — | 13.96 11.02–16.91 10.10–17.82 | — | 26.53 20.72–32.33 18.92–34.13 | — | 36% 57% |
| Offsides | 0.71 0.00–1.92 0.00–2.27 | — | 0.90 0.00–2.06 0.00–2.39 | — | 1.61 0.00–3.98 0.00–4.66 | — | 27% 35% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.60–2.71 0.33–2.98 | — | 1.92 0.80–3.04 0.51–3.33 | — | 3.58 1.40–5.76 0.84–6.32 | — | 34% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 1.32 0.00–2.73 0.00–3.12 | — | 1.58 0.03–3.14 0.00–3.57 | — | 2.90 0.00–5.87 0.00–6.69 | — | 32% 25% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.