FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
43%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.222.70safe0.51–2.430.37–2.080.87–4.52safer0.25–2.690.12–2.330.37–5.02actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.693.978.67safe2.83–6.552.27–5.685.10–12.23safer2.34–7.051.80–6.154.13–13.20
Total shots
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6811.4224.09safe8.97–16.388.04–14.8017.01–31.18safer7.94–17.417.11–15.7315.05–33.14
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction7.393.7011.08safe4.87–9.901.40–6.006.27–15.90safer4.00–10.770.60–6.804.61–17.56
Blocked shots
61%
17%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.781.664.44safe1.20–4.370.24–3.071.44–7.44safer0.67–4.900.00–3.560.42–8.46
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.144.059.19safe2.94–7.352.07–6.035.01–13.38safer2.34–7.941.54–6.573.88–14.51
Possession %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction53.4445.67safe47.13–59.7639.35–51.99safer45.53–61.3637.75–53.58
Passes
72%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction419351770safe353–484286–416640–899safer336–502269–433604–935
Pass accuracy %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction72.2965.49safe68.08–76.5160.98–69.99safer66.78–77.8159.65–71.32
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5512.0123.55safe8.69–14.409.06–14.9517.75–29.36safer7.80–15.298.14–15.8715.95–31.16
Offsides
42%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.192.114.30safe0.98–3.400.94–3.271.93–6.67safer0.64–3.750.61–3.601.25–7.35
Yellow cards
37%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.933.76safe0.78–2.890.81–3.051.58–5.94safer0.51–3.160.52–3.341.02–6.50
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.080.19safe0.00–0.270.00–0.270.00–0.54safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.052.945.99safe1.64–4.471.39–4.493.02–8.96safer1.25–4.850.95–4.932.20–9.78
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.51–2.43 0.25–2.69 | 2.00 | 1.22 0.37–2.08 0.12–2.33 | 1.00 | 2.70 0.87–4.52 0.37–5.02 | 3.00 | 43% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.69 2.83–6.55 2.34–7.05 | — | 3.97 2.27–5.68 1.80–6.15 | — | 8.67 5.10–12.23 4.13–13.20 | — | 53% 13% 34% |
| Total shots | 12.68 8.97–16.38 7.94–17.41 | — | 11.42 8.04–14.80 7.11–15.73 | — | 24.09 17.01–31.18 15.05–33.14 | — | 56% 36% |
| Shots in box | 7.39 4.87–9.90 4.00–10.77 | — | 3.70 1.40–6.00 0.60–6.80 | — | 11.08 6.27–15.90 4.61–17.56 | — | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 2.78 1.20–4.37 0.67–4.90 | — | 1.66 0.24–3.07 0.00–3.56 | — | 4.44 1.44–7.44 0.42–8.46 | — | 61% 17% 21% |
| Corners | 5.14 2.94–7.35 2.34–7.94 | — | 4.05 2.07–6.03 1.54–6.57 | — | 9.19 5.01–13.38 3.88–14.51 | — | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 53.44 47.13–59.76 45.53–61.36 | — | 45.67 39.35–51.99 37.75–53.58 | — | — | — | 67% 29% |
| Passes | 419 353–484 336–502 | — | 351 286–416 269–433 | — | 770 640–899 604–935 | — | 72% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.29 68.08–76.51 66.78–77.81 | — | 65.49 60.98–69.99 59.65–71.32 | — | — | — | 78% 18% |
| Fouls | 11.55 8.69–14.40 7.80–15.29 | — | 12.01 9.06–14.95 8.14–15.87 | — | 23.55 17.75–29.36 15.95–31.16 | — | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.19 0.98–3.40 0.64–3.75 | — | 2.11 0.94–3.27 0.61–3.60 | — | 4.30 1.93–6.67 1.25–7.35 | — | 42% 20% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.78–2.89 0.51–3.16 | — | 1.93 0.81–3.05 0.52–3.34 | — | 3.76 1.58–5.94 1.02–6.50 | — | 37% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | — | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.64–4.47 1.25–4.85 | — | 2.94 1.39–4.49 0.95–4.93 | — | 5.99 3.02–8.96 2.20–9.78 | — | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.