FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
46%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.072.54safe0.51–2.430.21–1.930.72–4.36safer0.25–2.690.00–2.180.21–4.87actual5.000.005.00
Shots on target
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.964.089.04safe3.10–6.812.38–5.795.48–12.60safer2.60–7.311.91–6.264.51–13.57
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6511.9524.59safe8.95–16.358.57–15.3217.51–31.68safer7.92–17.387.64–16.2515.55–33.64
Shots in box
46%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction6.446.3112.75safe3.93–8.964.00–8.617.93–17.57safer3.06–9.833.21–9.406.27–19.23
Blocked shots
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.952.935.89safe1.37–4.541.52–4.352.89–8.89safer0.84–5.071.03–4.831.87–9.91
Corners
47%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.873.557.42safe1.66–6.071.58–5.533.24–11.61safer1.07–6.671.04–6.072.11–12.74
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction50.7247.43safe44.40–57.0441.11–53.75safer42.81–58.6439.52–55.35
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction425376801safe360–490312–441671–931safer342–508294–458636–966
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction68.5267.95safe64.31–72.7463.44–72.46safer63.01–74.0462.11–73.79
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4412.4624.90safe9.58–15.309.51–15.4019.09–30.70safer8.70–16.188.59–16.3217.29–32.50
Offsides
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.663.30safe0.43–2.850.50–2.820.93–5.67safer0.08–3.190.17–3.160.25–6.35
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.943.65safe0.65–2.760.82–3.061.47–5.83safer0.38–3.040.53–3.350.91–6.39
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.040.13safe0.00–0.240.00–0.240.00–0.47safer0.00–0.390.00–0.380.00–0.77
GK saves
39%
18%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.542.685.22safe1.13–3.961.12–4.232.25–8.19safer0.74–4.350.69–4.661.43–9.01
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.51–2.43 0.25–2.69 | 5.00 | 1.07 0.21–1.93 0.00–2.18 | 0.00 | 2.54 0.72–4.36 0.21–4.87 | 5.00 | 46% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.96 3.10–6.81 2.60–7.31 | — | 4.08 2.38–5.79 1.91–6.26 | — | 9.04 5.48–12.60 4.51–13.57 | — | 55% 32% |
| Total shots | 12.65 8.95–16.35 7.92–17.38 | — | 11.95 8.57–15.32 7.64–16.25 | — | 24.59 17.51–31.68 15.55–33.64 | — | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 6.44 3.93–8.96 3.06–9.83 | — | 6.31 4.00–8.61 3.21–9.40 | — | 12.75 7.93–17.57 6.27–19.23 | — | 46% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 2.95 1.37–4.54 0.84–5.07 | — | 2.93 1.52–4.35 1.03–4.83 | — | 5.89 2.89–8.89 1.87–9.91 | — | 42% 17% 41% |
| Corners | 3.87 1.66–6.07 1.07–6.67 | — | 3.55 1.58–5.53 1.04–6.07 | — | 7.42 3.24–11.61 2.11–12.74 | — | 47% 15% 38% |
| Possession % | 50.72 44.40–57.04 42.81–58.64 | — | 47.43 41.11–53.75 39.52–55.35 | — | — | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 425 360–490 342–508 | — | 376 312–441 294–458 | — | 801 671–931 636–966 | — | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.52 64.31–72.74 63.01–74.04 | — | 67.95 63.44–72.46 62.11–73.79 | — | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 12.44 9.58–15.30 8.70–16.18 | — | 12.46 9.51–15.40 8.59–16.32 | — | 24.90 19.09–30.70 17.29–32.50 | — | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.43–2.85 0.08–3.19 | — | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.17–3.16 | — | 3.30 0.93–5.67 0.25–6.35 | — | 38% 23% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.65–2.76 0.38–3.04 | — | 1.94 0.82–3.06 0.53–3.35 | — | 3.65 1.47–5.83 0.91–6.39 | — | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | — | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.54 1.13–3.96 0.74–4.35 | — | 2.68 1.12–4.23 0.69–4.66 | — | 5.22 2.25–8.19 1.43–9.01 | — | 39% 18% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.