FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
43%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.342.92safe0.61–2.540.48–2.201.09–4.74safer0.35–2.800.23–2.450.59–5.24actual0.004.004.00
Shots on target
56%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.723.758.47safe2.86–6.572.04–5.464.91–12.03safer2.36–7.071.58–5.933.94–13.00
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction12.569.0921.66safe8.86–16.275.71–12.4714.57–28.74safer7.83–17.304.78–13.4012.61–30.70
Shots in box
18%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction4.607.2811.88safe2.08–7.114.98–9.587.06–16.69safer1.22–7.984.18–10.385.40–18.35
Blocked shots
27%
17%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.142.975.11safe0.56–3.721.56–4.392.11–8.11safer0.02–4.261.07–4.871.09–9.13
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.293.498.78safe3.08–7.501.51–5.474.60–12.96safer2.49–8.090.97–6.003.46–14.09
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction50.6149.45safe44.29–56.9343.13–55.76safer42.69–58.5241.53–57.36
Passes
53%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction400392792safe335–466327–456662–922safer317–483310–474627–957
Pass accuracy %
41%
55%
homeawayprediction70.3271.74safe66.11–74.5467.24–76.25safer64.81–75.8465.91–77.58
Fouls
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1711.7824.95safe10.31–16.028.84–14.7319.15–30.75safer9.42–16.917.92–15.6417.34–32.55
Offsides
50%
20%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.261.764.03safe1.05–3.470.60–2.931.65–6.40safer0.71–3.820.27–3.260.98–7.08
Yellow cards
39%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.723.43safe0.66–2.770.60–2.841.26–5.61safer0.39–3.040.31–3.130.69–6.17
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.060.15safe0.00–0.250.00–0.250.00–0.50safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
37%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.682.925.61safe1.27–4.101.37–4.482.64–8.58safer0.88–4.490.94–4.911.82–9.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 0.61–2.54 0.35–2.80 | 0.00 | 1.34 0.48–2.20 0.23–2.45 | 4.00 | 2.92 1.09–4.74 0.59–5.24 | 4.00 | 43% 25% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.72 2.86–6.57 2.36–7.07 | — | 3.75 2.04–5.46 1.58–5.93 | — | 8.47 4.91–12.03 3.94–13.00 | — | 56% 13% 31% |
| Total shots | 12.56 8.86–16.27 7.83–17.30 | — | 9.09 5.71–12.47 4.78–13.40 | — | 21.66 14.57–28.74 12.61–30.70 | — | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 4.60 2.08–7.11 1.22–7.98 | — | 7.28 4.98–9.58 4.18–10.38 | — | 11.88 7.06–16.69 5.40–18.35 | — | 18% 74% |
| Blocked shots | 2.14 0.56–3.72 0.02–4.26 | — | 2.97 1.56–4.39 1.07–4.87 | — | 5.11 2.11–8.11 1.09–9.13 | — | 27% 17% 55% |
| Corners | 5.29 3.08–7.50 2.49–8.09 | — | 3.49 1.51–5.47 0.97–6.00 | — | 8.78 4.60–12.96 3.46–14.09 | — | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 50.61 44.29–56.93 42.69–58.52 | — | 49.45 43.13–55.76 41.53–57.36 | — | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 400 335–466 317–483 | — | 392 327–456 310–474 | — | 792 662–922 627–957 | — | 53% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.32 66.11–74.54 64.81–75.84 | — | 71.74 67.24–76.25 65.91–77.58 | — | — | — | 41% 55% |
| Fouls | 13.17 10.31–16.02 9.42–16.91 | — | 11.78 8.84–14.73 7.92–15.64 | — | 24.95 19.15–30.75 17.34–32.55 | — | 57% 35% |
| Offsides | 2.26 1.05–3.47 0.71–3.82 | — | 1.76 0.60–2.93 0.27–3.26 | — | 4.03 1.65–6.40 0.98–7.08 | — | 50% 20% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.77 0.39–3.04 | — | 1.72 0.60–2.84 0.31–3.13 | — | 3.43 1.26–5.61 0.69–6.17 | — | 39% 23% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.27–4.10 0.88–4.49 | — | 2.92 1.37–4.48 0.94–4.91 | — | 5.61 2.64–8.58 1.82–9.40 | — | 37% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+