FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
46%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.142.64safe0.54–2.460.28–2.000.82–4.46safer0.28–2.720.03–2.240.31–4.97actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
57%
13%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.793.738.52safe2.93–6.652.02–5.444.96–12.09safer2.44–7.151.56–5.913.99–13.05
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction11.699.2120.90safe7.98–15.395.83–12.5913.81–27.98safer6.95–16.424.90–13.5211.85–29.94
Shots in box
46%
27%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.370.962.33safe0.00–3.880.00–3.270.00–7.15safer0.00–4.750.00–4.060.00–8.81
Blocked shots
27%
53%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction0.430.350.79safe0.00–2.020.00–1.770.00–3.79safer0.00–2.550.00–2.250.00–4.81
Corners
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.304.309.59safe3.09–7.502.32–6.275.41–13.78safer2.50–8.101.78–6.814.28–14.91
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction50.5749.10safe44.25–56.8942.78–55.42safer42.65–58.4841.18–57.01
Passes
51%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction370366736safe304–435301–431606–865safer287–453284–448570–901
Pass accuracy %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction67.8969.89safe63.68–72.1165.38–74.39safer62.37–73.4164.05–75.72
Fouls
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1712.0326.20safe11.32–17.039.08–14.9720.40–32.00safer10.43–17.918.16–15.8918.59–33.80
Offsides
29%
25%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.542.73safe0.00–2.400.38–2.700.36–5.10safer0.00–2.740.04–3.030.00–5.78
Yellow cards
37%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.923.72safe0.74–2.850.80–3.041.54–5.90safer0.47–3.130.51–3.330.98–6.46
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.354.31safe0.54–3.370.80–3.911.34–7.28safer0.16–3.760.37–4.340.52–8.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.54–2.46 0.28–2.72 | 3.00 | 1.14 0.28–2.00 0.03–2.24 | 1.00 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.31–4.97 | 4.00 | 46% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.79 2.93–6.65 2.44–7.15 | — | 3.73 2.02–5.44 1.56–5.91 | — | 8.52 4.96–12.09 3.99–13.05 | — | 57% 13% 29% |
| Total shots | 11.69 7.98–15.39 6.95–16.42 | — | 9.21 5.83–12.59 4.90–13.52 | — | 20.90 13.81–27.98 11.85–29.94 | — | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 1.37 0.00–3.88 0.00–4.75 | — | 0.96 0.00–3.27 0.00–4.06 | — | 2.33 0.00–7.15 0.00–8.81 | — | 46% 27% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 0.43 0.00–2.02 0.00–2.55 | — | 0.35 0.00–1.77 0.00–2.25 | — | 0.79 0.00–3.79 0.00–4.81 | — | 27% 53% 21% |
| Corners | 5.30 3.09–7.50 2.50–8.10 | — | 4.30 2.32–6.27 1.78–6.81 | — | 9.59 5.41–13.78 4.28–14.91 | — | 56% 31% |
| Possession % | 50.57 44.25–56.89 42.65–58.48 | — | 49.10 42.78–55.42 41.18–57.01 | — | — | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 370 304–435 287–453 | — | 366 301–431 284–448 | — | 736 606–865 570–901 | — | 51% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.89 63.68–72.11 62.37–73.41 | — | 69.89 65.38–74.39 64.05–75.72 | — | — | — | 38% 57% |
| Fouls | 14.17 11.32–17.03 10.43–17.91 | — | 12.03 9.08–14.97 8.16–15.89 | — | 26.20 20.40–32.00 18.59–33.80 | — | 63% 30% |
| Offsides | 1.19 0.00–2.40 0.00–2.74 | — | 1.54 0.38–2.70 0.04–3.03 | — | 2.73 0.36–5.10 0.00–5.78 | — | 29% 25% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.74–2.85 0.47–3.13 | — | 1.92 0.80–3.04 0.51–3.33 | — | 3.72 1.54–5.90 0.98–6.46 | — | 37% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.96 0.54–3.37 0.16–3.76 | — | 2.35 0.80–3.91 0.37–4.34 | — | 4.31 1.34–7.28 0.52–8.10 | — | 33% 20% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+