FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.312.80safe0.52–2.450.45–2.170.98–4.62safer0.26–2.710.21–2.420.47–5.13actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
44%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.075.0610.13safe3.21–6.923.36–6.776.57–13.69safer2.71–7.422.89–7.245.60–14.66
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1012.3426.44safe10.40–17.808.96–15.7119.35–33.52safer9.36–18.838.03–16.6517.39–35.48
Shots in box
16%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction5.799.1314.92safe3.28–8.316.83–11.4310.10–19.74safer2.41–9.176.03–12.238.44–21.40
Blocked shots
36%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.293.737.03safe1.71–4.882.32–5.154.03–10.03safer1.17–5.411.83–5.633.01–11.05
Corners
48%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.874.539.41safe2.67–7.082.55–6.515.22–13.59safer2.07–7.682.02–7.054.09–14.72
Possession %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction47.4552.46safe41.13–53.7746.14–58.78safer39.54–55.3644.54–60.38
Passes
42%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction363386748safe297–428321–450618–878safer280–445304–468583–913
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction65.5369.95safe61.31–69.7465.44–74.46safer60.01–71.0564.11–75.79
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6212.5924.21safe8.76–14.489.64–15.5318.40–30.01safer7.88–15.368.72–16.4516.60–31.81
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.803.44safe0.44–2.860.63–2.961.07–5.82safer0.09–3.200.30–3.290.39–6.49
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.993.69safe0.65–2.760.86–3.111.52–5.87safer0.38–3.040.57–3.400.96–6.43
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.050.11safe0.00–0.220.00–0.240.00–0.46safer0.00–0.370.00–0.380.00–0.75
GK saves
28%
17%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.243.025.26safe0.82–3.651.47–4.582.29–8.23safer0.43–4.041.04–5.011.47–9.05
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.52–2.45 0.26–2.71 | 0.00 | 1.31 0.45–2.17 0.21–2.42 | 1.00 | 2.80 0.98–4.62 0.47–5.13 | 1.00 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Shots on target | 5.07 3.21–6.92 2.71–7.42 | — | 5.06 3.36–6.77 2.89–7.24 | — | 10.13 6.57–13.69 5.60–14.66 | — | 44% 44% |
| Total shots | 14.10 10.40–17.80 9.36–18.83 | — | 12.34 8.96–15.71 8.03–16.65 | — | 26.44 19.35–33.52 17.39–35.48 | — | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 5.79 3.28–8.31 2.41–9.17 | — | 9.13 6.83–11.43 6.03–12.23 | — | 14.92 10.10–19.74 8.44–21.40 | — | 16% 77% |
| Blocked shots | 3.29 1.71–4.88 1.17–5.41 | — | 3.73 2.32–5.15 1.83–5.63 | — | 7.03 4.03–10.03 3.01–11.05 | — | 36% 15% 49% |
| Corners | 4.87 2.67–7.08 2.07–7.68 | — | 4.53 2.55–6.51 2.02–7.05 | — | 9.41 5.22–13.59 4.09–14.72 | — | 48% 13% 39% |
| Possession % | 47.45 41.13–53.77 39.54–55.36 | — | 52.46 46.14–58.78 44.54–60.38 | — | — | — | 35% 60% |
| Passes | 363 297–428 280–445 | — | 386 321–450 304–468 | — | 748 618–878 583–913 | — | 42% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.53 61.31–69.74 60.01–71.05 | — | 69.95 65.44–74.46 64.11–75.79 | — | — | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 11.62 8.76–14.48 7.88–15.36 | — | 12.59 9.64–15.53 8.72–16.45 | — | 24.21 18.40–30.01 16.60–31.81 | — | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.44–2.86 0.09–3.20 | — | 1.80 0.63–2.96 0.30–3.29 | — | 3.44 1.07–5.82 0.39–6.49 | — | 36% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.65–2.76 0.38–3.04 | — | 1.99 0.86–3.11 0.57–3.40 | — | 3.69 1.52–5.87 0.96–6.43 | — | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | — | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.24 0.82–3.65 0.43–4.04 | — | 3.02 1.47–4.58 1.04–5.01 | — | 5.26 2.29–8.23 1.47–9.05 | — | 28% 17% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+