FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
52%
24%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.082.81safe0.76–2.690.22–1.940.98–4.63safer0.50–2.950.00–2.190.48–5.14actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.904.119.01safe3.04–6.762.41–5.825.45–12.58safer2.55–7.261.94–6.294.48–13.54
Total shots
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction12.539.7522.28safe8.83–16.246.37–13.1315.20–29.36safer7.80–17.275.44–14.0613.24–31.33
Shots in box
49%
27%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.410.882.29safe0.00–3.930.00–3.180.00–7.11safer0.00–4.790.00–3.980.00–8.77
Blocked shots
21%
61%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction0.310.260.57safe0.00–1.890.00–1.680.00–3.57safer0.00–2.430.00–2.160.00–4.59
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.243.779.01safe3.03–7.441.79–5.754.82–13.19safer2.44–8.041.25–6.293.69–14.32
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction52.2646.71safe45.94–58.5840.39–53.03safer44.35–60.1738.79–54.63
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction437373809safe372–502308–437680–939safer354–520290–455644–975
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction71.9869.60safe67.76–76.1965.10–74.11safer66.46–77.4963.77–75.44
Fouls
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1312.5822.72safe7.27–12.999.64–15.5316.91–28.52safer6.39–13.878.72–16.4515.11–30.32
Offsides
19%
48%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction0.360.580.94safe0.00–1.570.00–1.740.00–3.31safer0.00–1.910.00–2.070.00–3.98
Yellow cards
33%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.873.47safe0.55–2.660.75–2.991.30–5.65safer0.27–2.930.46–3.280.73–6.21
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.070.17safe0.00–0.260.00–0.260.00–0.52safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.82
GK saves
29%
39%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction0.660.711.37safe0.00–2.070.00–2.260.00–4.34safer0.00–2.460.00–2.700.00–5.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.76–2.69 0.50–2.95 | 1.00 | 1.08 0.22–1.94 0.00–2.19 | 3.00 | 2.81 0.98–4.63 0.48–5.14 | 4.00 | 52% 24% 24% |
| Shots on target | 4.90 3.04–6.76 2.55–7.26 | — | 4.11 2.41–5.82 1.94–6.29 | — | 9.01 5.45–12.58 4.48–13.54 | — | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 12.53 8.83–16.24 7.80–17.27 | — | 9.75 6.37–13.13 5.44–14.06 | — | 22.28 15.20–29.36 13.24–31.33 | — | 69% 24% |
| Shots in box | 1.41 0.00–3.93 0.00–4.79 | — | 0.88 0.00–3.18 0.00–3.98 | — | 2.29 0.00–7.11 0.00–8.77 | — | 49% 27% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 0.31 0.00–1.89 0.00–2.43 | — | 0.26 0.00–1.68 0.00–2.16 | — | 0.57 0.00–3.57 0.00–4.59 | — | 21% 61% 18% |
| Corners | 5.24 3.03–7.44 2.44–8.04 | — | 3.77 1.79–5.75 1.25–6.29 | — | 9.01 4.82–13.19 3.69–14.32 | — | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 52.26 45.94–58.58 44.35–60.17 | — | 46.71 40.39–53.03 38.79–54.63 | — | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 437 372–502 354–520 | — | 373 308–437 290–455 | — | 809 680–939 644–975 | — | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.98 67.76–76.19 66.46–77.49 | — | 69.60 65.10–74.11 63.77–75.44 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 10.13 7.27–12.99 6.39–13.87 | — | 12.58 9.64–15.53 8.72–16.45 | — | 22.72 16.91–28.52 15.11–30.32 | — | 27% 66% |
| Offsides | 0.36 0.00–1.57 0.00–1.91 | — | 0.58 0.00–1.74 0.00–2.07 | — | 0.94 0.00–3.31 0.00–3.98 | — | 19% 48% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.66 0.27–2.93 | — | 1.87 0.75–2.99 0.46–3.28 | — | 3.47 1.30–5.65 0.73–6.21 | — | 33% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 0.66 0.00–2.07 0.00–2.46 | — | 0.71 0.00–2.26 0.00–2.70 | — | 1.37 0.00–4.34 0.00–5.16 | — | 29% 39% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.