FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
44%
25%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.222.72safe0.54–2.460.36–2.080.90–4.55safer0.28–2.720.12–2.330.39–5.05actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.844.038.87safe2.98–6.692.33–5.745.31–12.44safer2.48–7.191.86–6.214.34–13.40
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction11.559.1020.65safe7.84–15.255.72–12.4813.57–27.73safer6.81–16.284.79–13.4111.61–29.69
Shots in box
49%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.253.00safe0.00–4.260.00–3.550.00–7.82safer0.00–5.130.00–4.350.00–9.48
Blocked shots
27%
55%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction0.420.300.73safe0.00–2.010.00–1.720.00–3.72safer0.00–2.540.00–2.200.00–4.75
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.199.62safe3.22–7.632.21–6.165.43–13.80safer2.63–8.231.67–6.704.30–14.93
Possession %
62%
34%
homeawayprediction52.1246.45safe45.80–58.4440.13–52.77safer44.21–60.0338.54–54.37
Passes
68%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction423367790safe357–488303–432660–920safer340–506285–450625–955
Pass accuracy %
65%
30%
homeawayprediction70.6167.01safe66.40–74.8362.50–71.51safer65.09–76.1361.17–72.85
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0513.4525.50safe9.19–14.9110.50–16.3919.70–31.30safer8.31–15.799.58–17.3117.89–33.10
Offsides
34%
46%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction0.600.401.01safe0.00–1.810.00–1.570.00–3.38safer0.00–2.160.00–1.900.00–4.06
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.963.62safe0.60–2.710.84–3.081.44–5.80safer0.33–2.990.55–3.370.88–6.36
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.252.58safe0.00–2.740.00–2.810.00–5.55safer0.00–3.130.00–3.240.00–6.37
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.54–2.46 0.28–2.72 | 1.00 | 1.22 0.36–2.08 0.12–2.33 | 2.00 | 2.72 0.90–4.55 0.39–5.05 | 3.00 | 44% 25% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.84 2.98–6.69 2.48–7.19 | — | 4.03 2.33–5.74 1.86–6.21 | — | 8.87 5.31–12.44 4.34–13.40 | — | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 11.55 7.84–15.25 6.81–16.28 | — | 9.10 5.72–12.48 4.79–13.41 | — | 20.65 13.57–27.73 11.61–29.69 | — | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 1.75 0.00–4.26 0.00–5.13 | — | 1.25 0.00–3.55 0.00–4.35 | — | 3.00 0.00–7.82 0.00–9.48 | — | 49% 23% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 0.42 0.00–2.01 0.00–2.54 | — | 0.30 0.00–1.72 0.00–2.20 | — | 0.73 0.00–3.72 0.00–4.75 | — | 27% 55% 18% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.22–7.63 2.63–8.23 | — | 4.19 2.21–6.16 1.67–6.70 | — | 9.62 5.43–13.80 4.30–14.93 | — | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 52.12 45.80–58.44 44.21–60.03 | — | 46.45 40.13–52.77 38.54–54.37 | — | — | — | 62% 34% |
| Passes | 423 357–488 340–506 | — | 367 303–432 285–450 | — | 790 660–920 625–955 | — | 68% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.61 66.40–74.83 65.09–76.13 | — | 67.01 62.50–71.51 61.17–72.85 | — | — | — | 65% 30% |
| Fouls | 12.05 9.19–14.91 8.31–15.79 | — | 13.45 10.50–16.39 9.58–17.31 | — | 25.50 19.70–31.30 17.89–33.10 | — | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 0.60 0.00–1.81 0.00–2.16 | — | 0.40 0.00–1.57 0.00–1.90 | — | 1.01 0.00–3.38 0.00–4.06 | — | 34% 46% 20% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.60–2.71 0.33–2.99 | — | 1.96 0.84–3.08 0.55–3.37 | — | 3.62 1.44–5.80 0.88–6.36 | — | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 1.33 0.00–2.74 0.00–3.13 | — | 1.25 0.00–2.81 0.00–3.24 | — | 2.58 0.00–5.55 0.00–6.37 | — | 39% 26% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.