FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
66%
19%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.170.913.08safe1.21–3.130.05–1.771.25–4.90safer0.94–3.390.00–2.010.75–5.41actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
78%
homeawaytotalprediction5.192.587.77safe3.33–7.050.87–4.284.21–11.33safer2.84–7.550.40–4.753.24–12.30
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction11.285.1816.46safe7.58–14.981.80–8.569.37–23.54safer6.54–16.010.87–9.497.41–25.50
Shots in box
35%
43%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction0.660.461.12safe0.00–3.170.00–2.770.00–5.94safer0.00–4.040.00–3.560.00–7.60
Blocked shots
17%
66%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction0.240.230.47safe0.00–1.820.00–1.650.00–3.47safer0.00–2.360.00–2.140.00–4.49
Corners
86%
homeawaytotalprediction7.513.4410.95safe5.30–9.711.47–5.426.77–15.13safer4.71–10.310.93–5.965.63–16.27
Possession %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction56.2543.83safe49.93–62.5737.51–50.15safer48.33–64.1635.92–51.75
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction412369781safe347–477305–434651–911safer329–495287–452616–946
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction72.0569.56safe67.83–76.2665.05–74.06safer66.53–77.5663.72–75.40
Fouls
44%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5315.8731.40safe12.67–18.3812.93–18.8225.60–37.20safer11.78–19.2712.01–19.7423.79–39.00
Offsides
34%
39%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction0.730.611.34safe0.00–1.940.00–1.770.00–3.71safer0.00–2.290.00–2.100.00–4.39
Yellow cards
37%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.923.74safe0.76–2.880.80–3.041.57–5.92safer0.49–3.150.51–3.331.00–6.48
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
33%
27%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.342.51safe0.00–2.590.00–2.890.00–5.48safer0.00–2.970.00–3.320.00–6.30
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.17 1.21–3.13 0.94–3.39 | 0.00 | 0.91 0.05–1.77 0.00–2.01 | 2.00 | 3.08 1.25–4.90 0.75–5.41 | 2.00 | 66% 19% 15% |
| Shots on target | 5.19 3.33–7.05 2.84–7.55 | — | 2.58 0.87–4.28 0.40–4.75 | — | 7.77 4.21–11.33 3.24–12.30 | — | 78% |
| Total shots | 11.28 7.58–14.98 6.54–16.01 | — | 5.18 1.80–8.56 0.87–9.49 | — | 16.46 9.37–23.54 7.41–25.50 | — | 92% |
| Shots in box | 0.66 0.00–3.17 0.00–4.04 | — | 0.46 0.00–2.77 0.00–3.56 | — | 1.12 0.00–5.94 0.00–7.60 | — | 35% 43% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 0.24 0.00–1.82 0.00–2.36 | — | 0.23 0.00–1.65 0.00–2.14 | — | 0.47 0.00–3.47 0.00–4.49 | — | 17% 66% 17% |
| Corners | 7.51 5.30–9.71 4.71–10.31 | — | 3.44 1.47–5.42 0.93–5.96 | — | 10.95 6.77–15.13 5.63–16.27 | — | 86% |
| Possession % | 56.25 49.93–62.57 48.33–64.16 | — | 43.83 37.51–50.15 35.92–51.75 | — | — | — | 76% 20% |
| Passes | 412 347–477 329–495 | — | 369 305–434 287–452 | — | 781 651–911 616–946 | — | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.05 67.83–76.26 66.53–77.56 | — | 69.56 65.05–74.06 63.72–75.40 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 15.53 12.67–18.38 11.78–19.27 | — | 15.87 12.93–18.82 12.01–19.74 | — | 31.40 25.60–37.20 23.79–39.00 | — | 44% 49% |
| Offsides | 0.73 0.00–1.94 0.00–2.29 | — | 0.61 0.00–1.77 0.00–2.10 | — | 1.34 0.00–3.71 0.00–4.39 | — | 34% 39% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.76–2.88 0.49–3.15 | — | 1.92 0.80–3.04 0.51–3.33 | — | 3.74 1.57–5.92 1.00–6.48 | — | 37% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.17 0.00–2.59 0.00–2.97 | — | 1.34 0.00–2.89 0.00–3.32 | — | 2.51 0.00–5.48 0.00–6.30 | — | 33% 27% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.