FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
34%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.613.04safe0.47–2.390.75–2.471.22–4.86safer0.21–2.650.51–2.720.71–5.37actual4.000.004.00
Shots on target
42%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.794.949.73safe2.93–6.643.23–6.656.16–13.29safer2.43–7.142.76–7.125.20–14.26
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5813.6426.21safe8.87–16.2810.26–17.0119.13–33.29safer7.84–17.319.33–17.9517.17–35.26
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction8.124.2812.40safe5.61–10.641.97–6.587.58–17.22safer4.74–11.501.18–7.375.92–18.88
Blocked shots
62%
15%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.502.275.77safe1.92–5.090.86–3.692.78–8.77safer1.39–5.620.37–4.171.76–9.79
Corners
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.994.989.98safe2.79–7.203.00–6.965.79–14.16safer2.19–7.792.47–7.504.66–15.29
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction50.6648.36safe44.34–56.9842.04–54.68safer42.74–58.5740.44–56.28
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction432412844safe367–497347–476714–974safer349–515330–494679–1009
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction74.5168.61safe70.30–78.7364.11–73.12safer69.00–80.0362.77–74.45
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8813.0523.92safe8.02–13.7410.10–15.9918.12–29.73safer7.14–14.629.18–16.9116.32–31.53
Offsides
39%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.054.05safe0.79–3.210.89–3.211.68–6.43safer0.45–3.560.56–3.551.01–7.10
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.782.103.88safe0.72–2.830.98–3.221.70–6.06safer0.45–3.110.69–3.511.14–6.62
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.080.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.270.00–0.55safer0.00–0.440.00–0.410.00–0.85
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.942.885.82safe1.53–4.361.32–4.432.85–8.79safer1.14–4.750.89–4.862.03–9.61
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.47–2.39 0.21–2.65 | 4.00 | 1.61 0.75–2.47 0.51–2.72 | 0.00 | 3.04 1.22–4.86 0.71–5.37 | 4.00 | 34% 24% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.79 2.93–6.64 2.43–7.14 | — | 4.94 3.23–6.65 2.76–7.12 | — | 9.73 6.16–13.29 5.20–14.26 | — | 42% 45% |
| Total shots | 12.58 8.87–16.28 7.84–17.31 | — | 13.64 10.26–17.01 9.33–17.95 | — | 26.21 19.13–33.29 17.17–35.26 | — | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 8.12 5.61–10.64 4.74–11.50 | — | 4.28 1.97–6.58 1.18–7.37 | — | 12.40 7.58–17.22 5.92–18.88 | — | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 1.92–5.09 1.39–5.62 | — | 2.27 0.86–3.69 0.37–4.17 | — | 5.77 2.78–8.77 1.76–9.79 | — | 62% 15% 23% |
| Corners | 4.99 2.79–7.20 2.19–7.79 | — | 4.98 3.00–6.96 2.47–7.50 | — | 9.98 5.79–14.16 4.66–15.29 | — | 44% 43% |
| Possession % | 50.66 44.34–56.98 42.74–58.57 | — | 48.36 42.04–54.68 40.44–56.28 | — | — | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 432 367–497 349–515 | — | 412 347–476 330–494 | — | 844 714–974 679–1009 | — | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.51 70.30–78.73 69.00–80.03 | — | 68.61 64.11–73.12 62.77–74.45 | — | — | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 10.88 8.02–13.74 7.14–14.62 | — | 13.05 10.10–15.99 9.18–16.91 | — | 23.92 18.12–29.73 16.32–31.53 | — | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.79–3.21 0.45–3.56 | — | 2.05 0.89–3.21 0.56–3.55 | — | 4.05 1.68–6.43 1.01–7.10 | — | 39% 21% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.72–2.83 0.45–3.11 | — | 2.10 0.98–3.22 0.69–3.51 | — | 3.88 1.70–6.06 1.14–6.62 | — | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.44 | — | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.85 | — | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.53–4.36 1.14–4.75 | — | 2.88 1.32–4.43 0.89–4.86 | — | 5.82 2.85–8.79 2.03–9.61 | — | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.