FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
38%
28%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.132.35safe0.26–2.180.27–1.990.52–4.17safer0.00–2.440.02–2.230.02–4.68actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
75%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction5.052.657.71safe3.20–6.910.95–4.364.15–11.27safer2.70–7.410.48–4.833.18–12.24
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction13.428.2721.70safe9.72–17.134.90–11.6514.62–28.78safer8.69–18.163.97–12.5812.66–30.74
Shots in box
75%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction4.362.116.46safe1.84–6.870.00–4.411.65–11.28safer0.98–7.740.00–5.210.00–12.94
Blocked shots
57%
23%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.760.942.70safe0.18–3.340.00–2.350.00–5.70safer0.00–3.880.00–2.840.00–6.72
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.354.169.50safe3.14–7.552.18–6.135.32–13.68safer2.55–8.151.64–6.674.19–14.82
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction51.8347.05safe45.51–58.1540.73–53.37safer43.92–59.7539.13–54.96
Passes
59%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction411384795safe346–476319–448665–925safer328–494302–466630–960
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction71.0968.47safe66.88–75.3163.96–72.97safer65.58–76.6162.63–74.30
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2713.7225.98safe9.41–15.1210.77–16.6620.18–31.78safer8.52–16.019.85–17.5818.38–33.59
Offsides
50%
21%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.593.70safe0.90–3.320.43–2.751.33–6.07safer0.56–3.660.09–3.080.65–6.75
Yellow cards
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.973.83safe0.81–2.920.85–3.091.66–6.01safer0.53–3.190.56–3.381.09–6.57
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.070.19safe0.00–0.270.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
40%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.482.555.04safe1.07–3.901.00–4.112.07–8.01safer0.68–4.290.57–4.541.25–8.83
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.26–2.18 0.00–2.44 | 2.00 | 1.13 0.27–1.99 0.02–2.23 | 1.00 | 2.35 0.52–4.17 0.02–4.68 | 3.00 | 38% 28% 34% |
| Shots on target | 5.05 3.20–6.91 2.70–7.41 | — | 2.65 0.95–4.36 0.48–4.83 | — | 7.71 4.15–11.27 3.18–12.24 | — | 75% 14% |
| Total shots | 13.42 9.72–17.13 8.69–18.16 | — | 8.27 4.90–11.65 3.97–12.58 | — | 21.70 14.62–28.78 12.66–30.74 | — | 84% |
| Shots in box | 4.36 1.84–6.87 0.98–7.74 | — | 2.11 0.00–4.41 0.00–5.21 | — | 6.46 1.65–11.28 0.00–12.94 | — | 75% 13% |
| Blocked shots | 1.76 0.18–3.34 0.00–3.88 | — | 0.94 0.00–2.35 0.00–2.84 | — | 2.70 0.00–5.70 0.00–6.72 | — | 57% 23% 20% |
| Corners | 5.35 3.14–7.55 2.55–8.15 | — | 4.16 2.18–6.13 1.64–6.67 | — | 9.50 5.32–13.68 4.19–14.82 | — | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 51.83 45.51–58.15 43.92–59.75 | — | 47.05 40.73–53.37 39.13–54.96 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 411 346–476 328–494 | — | 384 319–448 302–466 | — | 795 665–925 630–960 | — | 59% 41% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.09 66.88–75.31 65.58–76.61 | — | 68.47 63.96–72.97 62.63–74.30 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 12.27 9.41–15.12 8.52–16.01 | — | 13.72 10.77–16.66 9.85–17.58 | — | 25.98 20.18–31.78 18.38–33.59 | — | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 2.11 0.90–3.32 0.56–3.66 | — | 1.59 0.43–2.75 0.09–3.08 | — | 3.70 1.33–6.07 0.65–6.75 | — | 50% 21% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.81–2.92 0.53–3.19 | — | 1.97 0.85–3.09 0.56–3.38 | — | 3.83 1.66–6.01 1.09–6.57 | — | 37% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.07–3.90 0.68–4.29 | — | 2.55 1.00–4.11 0.57–4.54 | — | 5.04 2.07–8.01 1.25–8.83 | — | 40% 18% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.