FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
38%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.282.60safe0.36–2.290.42–2.140.78–4.43safer0.10–2.550.17–2.390.28–4.93actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
53%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.173.427.59safe2.31–6.031.72–5.134.03–11.16safer1.82–6.531.25–5.603.06–12.12
Total shots
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction11.139.4020.52safe7.42–14.836.02–12.7813.44–27.61safer6.39–15.865.09–13.7111.48–29.57
Shots in box
51%
17%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.902.305.20safe0.39–5.420.00–4.600.39–10.02safer0.00–6.280.00–5.400.00–11.68
Blocked shots
43%
28%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.052.36safe0.00–2.900.00–2.460.00–5.36safer0.00–3.430.00–2.950.00–6.38
Corners
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.464.408.86safe2.26–6.672.42–6.384.68–13.05safer1.66–7.261.89–6.923.55–14.18
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction47.4951.89safe41.17–53.8145.57–58.21safer39.57–55.4043.97–59.81
Passes
34%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction343392735safe278–408327–456605–865safer260–426310–474570–900
Pass accuracy %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction66.3571.45safe62.13–70.5666.94–75.96safer60.83–71.8665.61–77.29
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7711.1922.96safe8.91–14.638.25–14.1417.16–28.77safer8.03–15.517.33–15.0615.36–30.57
Offsides
45%
20%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.191.924.11safe0.98–3.400.76–3.081.74–6.49safer0.64–3.750.43–3.421.06–7.16
Yellow cards
39%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.883.76safe0.82–2.930.76–3.001.58–5.94safer0.55–3.210.47–3.291.02–6.50
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
24%
16%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.213.345.55safe0.80–3.621.79–4.892.58–8.52safer0.41–4.011.35–5.321.76–9.34
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.29 0.10–2.55 | 2.00 | 1.28 0.42–2.14 0.17–2.39 | 3.00 | 2.60 0.78–4.43 0.28–4.93 | 5.00 | 38% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.17 2.31–6.03 1.82–6.53 | — | 3.42 1.72–5.13 1.25–5.60 | — | 7.59 4.03–11.16 3.06–12.12 | — | 53% 14% 32% |
| Total shots | 11.13 7.42–14.83 6.39–15.86 | — | 9.40 6.02–12.78 5.09–13.71 | — | 20.52 13.44–27.61 11.48–29.57 | — | 61% 31% |
| Shots in box | 2.90 0.39–5.42 0.00–6.28 | — | 2.30 0.00–4.60 0.00–5.40 | — | 5.20 0.39–10.02 0.00–11.68 | — | 51% 17% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 1.31 0.00–2.90 0.00–3.43 | — | 1.05 0.00–2.46 0.00–2.95 | — | 2.36 0.00–5.36 0.00–6.38 | — | 43% 28% 30% |
| Corners | 4.46 2.26–6.67 1.66–7.26 | — | 4.40 2.42–6.38 1.89–6.92 | — | 8.86 4.68–13.05 3.55–14.18 | — | 44% 14% 42% |
| Possession % | 47.49 41.17–53.81 39.57–55.40 | — | 51.89 45.57–58.21 43.97–59.81 | — | — | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 343 278–408 260–426 | — | 392 327–456 310–474 | — | 735 605–865 570–900 | — | 34% 66% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.35 62.13–70.56 60.83–71.86 | — | 71.45 66.94–75.96 65.61–77.29 | — | — | — | 24% 72% |
| Fouls | 11.77 8.91–14.63 8.03–15.51 | — | 11.19 8.25–14.14 7.33–15.06 | — | 22.96 17.16–28.77 15.36–30.57 | — | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 2.19 0.98–3.40 0.64–3.75 | — | 1.92 0.76–3.08 0.43–3.42 | — | 4.11 1.74–6.49 1.06–7.16 | — | 45% 20% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 0.82–2.93 0.55–3.21 | — | 1.88 0.76–3.00 0.47–3.29 | — | 3.76 1.58–5.94 1.02–6.50 | — | 39% 21% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.21 0.80–3.62 0.41–4.01 | — | 3.34 1.79–4.89 1.35–5.32 | — | 5.55 2.58–8.52 1.76–9.34 | — | 24% 16% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.