FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
39%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.142.42safe0.31–2.240.28–2.000.60–4.24safer0.05–2.500.04–2.250.09–4.75actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.953.868.81safe3.09–6.802.15–5.575.24–12.37safer2.59–7.301.69–6.044.28–13.34
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction12.979.8822.86safe9.27–16.686.51–13.2615.78–29.94safer8.24–17.715.58–14.1913.82–31.90
Shots in box
61%
13%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.643.347.98safe2.12–7.151.04–5.643.16–12.80safer1.26–8.020.24–6.441.50–14.46
Blocked shots
48%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.182.80safe0.03–3.200.00–2.600.00–5.80safer0.00–3.740.00–3.080.00–6.82
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.153.919.06safe2.94–7.351.93–5.894.87–13.24safer2.35–7.951.39–6.433.74–14.37
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction53.4546.12safe47.13–59.7639.80–52.43safer45.53–61.3638.20–54.03
Passes
73%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction411338749safe345–476274–403619–879safer328–493256–420584–914
Pass accuracy %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction71.4966.37safe67.28–75.7161.86–70.87safer65.98–77.0160.53–72.20
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6213.1824.80safe8.77–14.4810.23–16.1219.00–30.60safer7.88–15.379.31–17.0417.19–32.41
Offsides
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.933.93safe0.79–3.210.76–3.091.56–6.30safer0.45–3.560.43–3.420.88–6.98
Yellow cards
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.953.76safe0.75–2.870.83–3.071.58–5.93safer0.48–3.140.54–3.361.02–6.50
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.070.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.260.00–0.52safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.82
GK saves
44%
18%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.732.585.31safe1.32–4.151.03–4.132.34–8.28safer0.93–4.540.59–4.571.52–9.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 0.31–2.24 0.05–2.50 | 1.00 | 1.14 0.28–2.00 0.04–2.25 | 0.00 | 2.42 0.60–4.24 0.09–4.75 | 1.00 | 39% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.95 3.09–6.80 2.59–7.30 | — | 3.86 2.15–5.57 1.69–6.04 | — | 8.81 5.24–12.37 4.28–13.34 | — | 58% 29% |
| Total shots | 12.97 9.27–16.68 8.24–17.71 | — | 9.88 6.51–13.26 5.58–14.19 | — | 22.86 15.78–29.94 13.82–31.90 | — | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 4.64 2.12–7.15 1.26–8.02 | — | 3.34 1.04–5.64 0.24–6.44 | — | 7.98 3.16–12.80 1.50–14.46 | — | 61% 13% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 1.62 0.03–3.20 0.00–3.74 | — | 1.18 0.00–2.60 0.00–3.08 | — | 2.80 0.00–5.80 0.00–6.82 | — | 48% 25% 28% |
| Corners | 5.15 2.94–7.35 2.35–7.95 | — | 3.91 1.93–5.89 1.39–6.43 | — | 9.06 4.87–13.24 3.74–14.37 | — | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 53.45 47.13–59.76 45.53–61.36 | — | 46.12 39.80–52.43 38.20–54.03 | — | — | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 411 345–476 328–493 | — | 338 274–403 256–420 | — | 749 619–879 584–914 | — | 73% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.49 67.28–75.71 65.98–77.01 | — | 66.37 61.86–70.87 60.53–72.20 | — | — | — | 72% 24% |
| Fouls | 11.62 8.77–14.48 7.88–15.37 | — | 13.18 10.23–16.12 9.31–17.04 | — | 24.80 19.00–30.60 17.19–32.41 | — | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.79–3.21 0.45–3.56 | — | 1.93 0.76–3.09 0.43–3.42 | — | 3.93 1.56–6.30 0.88–6.98 | — | 41% 21% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.75–2.87 0.48–3.14 | — | 1.95 0.83–3.07 0.54–3.36 | — | 3.76 1.58–5.93 1.02–6.50 | — | 37% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.32–4.15 0.93–4.54 | — | 2.58 1.03–4.13 0.59–4.57 | — | 5.31 2.34–8.28 1.52–9.10 | — | 44% 18% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.