FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
43%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.192.64safe0.49–2.410.33–2.050.82–4.47safer0.23–2.670.09–2.300.31–4.97actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
48%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.684.318.99safe2.82–6.532.61–6.025.43–12.55safer2.32–7.032.14–6.494.46–13.52
Total shots
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction11.599.9221.50safe7.88–15.296.54–13.2914.42–28.59safer6.85–16.325.61–14.2312.46–30.55
Shots in box
53%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.092.85safe0.00–4.280.00–3.390.00–7.67safer0.00–5.140.00–4.190.00–9.33
Blocked shots
23%
58%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction0.350.300.65safe0.00–1.930.00–1.720.00–3.65safer0.00–2.460.00–2.200.00–4.67
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.144.379.51safe2.94–7.352.39–6.355.33–13.69safer2.34–7.941.85–6.884.19–14.83
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction50.3348.70safe44.01–56.6542.38–55.02safer42.42–58.2440.79–56.62
Passes
62%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction406370777safe341–472306–435647–906safer323–489288–453611–942
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction70.8368.19safe66.62–75.0563.69–72.70safer65.31–76.3562.36–74.03
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5912.7623.36safe7.74–13.459.82–15.7117.55–29.16safer6.85–14.338.90–16.6315.75–30.96
Offsides
18%
56%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction0.300.400.70safe0.00–1.510.00–1.560.00–3.07safer0.00–1.850.00–1.900.00–3.75
Yellow cards
35%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.953.71safe0.70–2.820.83–3.071.53–5.89safer0.43–3.090.54–3.360.97–6.45
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
36%
37%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction0.810.631.44safe0.00–2.220.00–2.190.00–4.41safer0.00–2.610.00–2.620.00–5.23
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.49–2.41 0.23–2.67 | 2.00 | 1.19 0.33–2.05 0.09–2.30 | 0.00 | 2.64 0.82–4.47 0.31–4.97 | 2.00 | 43% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.68 2.82–6.53 2.32–7.03 | — | 4.31 2.61–6.02 2.14–6.49 | — | 8.99 5.43–12.55 4.46–13.52 | — | 48% 13% 39% |
| Total shots | 11.59 7.88–15.29 6.85–16.32 | — | 9.92 6.54–13.29 5.61–14.23 | — | 21.50 14.42–28.59 12.46–30.55 | — | 60% 32% |
| Shots in box | 1.76 0.00–4.28 0.00–5.14 | — | 1.09 0.00–3.39 0.00–4.19 | — | 2.85 0.00–7.67 0.00–9.33 | — | 53% 23% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 0.35 0.00–1.93 0.00–2.46 | — | 0.30 0.00–1.72 0.00–2.20 | — | 0.65 0.00–3.65 0.00–4.67 | — | 23% 58% 19% |
| Corners | 5.14 2.94–7.35 2.34–7.94 | — | 4.37 2.39–6.35 1.85–6.88 | — | 9.51 5.33–13.69 4.19–14.83 | — | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 50.33 44.01–56.65 42.42–58.24 | — | 48.70 42.38–55.02 40.79–56.62 | — | — | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 406 341–472 323–489 | — | 370 306–435 288–453 | — | 777 647–906 611–942 | — | 62% 38% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.83 66.62–75.05 65.31–76.35 | — | 68.19 63.69–72.70 62.36–74.03 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 10.59 7.74–13.45 6.85–14.33 | — | 12.76 9.82–15.71 8.90–16.63 | — | 23.36 17.55–29.16 15.75–30.96 | — | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 0.30 0.00–1.51 0.00–1.85 | — | 0.40 0.00–1.56 0.00–1.90 | — | 0.70 0.00–3.07 0.00–3.75 | — | 18% 56% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.70–2.82 0.43–3.09 | — | 1.95 0.83–3.07 0.54–3.36 | — | 3.71 1.53–5.89 0.97–6.45 | — | 35% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 0.81 0.00–2.22 0.00–2.61 | — | 0.63 0.00–2.19 0.00–2.62 | — | 1.44 0.00–4.41 0.00–5.23 | — | 36% 37% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+