FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·
FA Cup·1st Round Qualifying Replays·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
47%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.142.71safe0.61–2.530.29–2.000.89–4.54safer0.35–2.790.04–2.250.38–5.04actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.843.828.66safe2.98–6.702.11–5.535.10–12.22safer2.49–7.201.64–5.994.13–13.19
Total shots
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction11.899.2021.09safe8.19–15.605.82–12.5814.01–28.17safer7.16–16.634.89–13.5112.05–30.14
Shots in box
53%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.112.87safe0.00–4.280.00–3.410.00–7.69safer0.00–5.140.00–4.210.00–9.35
Blocked shots
23%
57%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction0.360.320.67safe0.00–1.940.00–1.730.00–3.67safer0.00–2.470.00–2.220.00–4.69
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.374.159.51safe3.16–7.572.17–6.135.33–13.70safer2.57–8.171.63–6.664.20–14.83
Possession %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction52.1547.01safe45.83–58.4740.69–53.33safer44.23–60.0639.09–54.92
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction426365791safe361–491300–430661–921safer343–509283–447626–956
Pass accuracy %
65%
30%
homeawayprediction71.9468.23safe67.72–76.1563.73–72.74safer66.42–77.4562.40–74.07
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5812.2824.86safe9.72–15.439.34–15.2319.06–30.66safer8.83–16.328.42–16.1517.25–32.47
Offsides
37%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.312.63safe0.11–2.530.15–2.470.26–5.00safer0.00–2.870.00–2.800.00–5.68
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.053.79safe0.69–2.800.93–3.171.61–5.97safer0.42–3.070.64–3.461.05–6.53
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
32%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.952.424.37safe0.54–3.360.86–3.971.40–7.33safer0.15–3.750.43–4.400.58–8.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.61–2.53 0.35–2.79 | 0.00 | 1.14 0.29–2.00 0.04–2.25 | 2.00 | 2.71 0.89–4.54 0.38–5.04 | 2.00 | 47% 25% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.84 2.98–6.70 2.49–7.20 | — | 3.82 2.11–5.53 1.64–5.99 | — | 8.66 5.10–12.22 4.13–13.19 | — | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 11.89 8.19–15.60 7.16–16.63 | — | 9.20 5.82–12.58 4.89–13.51 | — | 21.09 14.01–28.17 12.05–30.14 | — | 68% 24% |
| Shots in box | 1.76 0.00–4.28 0.00–5.14 | — | 1.11 0.00–3.41 0.00–4.21 | — | 2.87 0.00–7.69 0.00–9.35 | — | 53% 23% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 0.36 0.00–1.94 0.00–2.47 | — | 0.32 0.00–1.73 0.00–2.22 | — | 0.67 0.00–3.67 0.00–4.69 | — | 23% 57% 20% |
| Corners | 5.37 3.16–7.57 2.57–8.17 | — | 4.15 2.17–6.13 1.63–6.66 | — | 9.51 5.33–13.70 4.20–14.83 | — | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 52.15 45.83–58.47 44.23–60.06 | — | 47.01 40.69–53.33 39.09–54.92 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Passes | 426 361–491 343–509 | — | 365 300–430 283–447 | — | 791 661–921 626–956 | — | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.94 67.72–76.15 66.42–77.45 | — | 68.23 63.73–72.74 62.40–74.07 | — | — | — | 65% 30% |
| Fouls | 12.58 9.72–15.43 8.83–16.32 | — | 12.28 9.34–15.23 8.42–16.15 | — | 24.86 19.06–30.66 17.25–32.47 | — | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.32 0.11–2.53 0.00–2.87 | — | 1.31 0.15–2.47 0.00–2.80 | — | 2.63 0.26–5.00 0.00–5.68 | — | 37% 26% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.69–2.80 0.42–3.07 | — | 2.05 0.93–3.17 0.64–3.46 | — | 3.79 1.61–5.97 1.05–6.53 | — | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 1.95 0.54–3.36 0.15–3.75 | — | 2.42 0.86–3.97 0.43–4.40 | — | 4.37 1.40–7.33 0.58–8.16 | — | 32% 19% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+