FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
42%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.192.60safe0.45–2.370.33–2.050.78–4.42safer0.19–2.630.08–2.290.27–4.93actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.425.099.51safe2.56–6.273.39–6.805.95–13.07safer2.06–6.772.92–7.274.98–14.04
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3812.0624.44safe8.68–16.088.68–15.4317.35–31.52safer7.65–17.117.75–16.3715.39–33.48
Shots in box
17%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction4.497.2611.75safe1.98–7.014.95–9.566.93–16.57safer1.11–7.874.16–10.355.27–18.23
Blocked shots
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.533.175.70safe0.95–4.111.76–4.592.71–8.70safer0.41–4.651.27–5.081.68–9.72
Corners
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.243.737.97safe2.03–6.441.76–5.713.79–12.16safer1.44–7.041.22–6.252.66–13.29
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction49.9548.77safe43.63–56.2742.45–55.09safer42.04–57.8740.85–56.68
Passes
46%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction398409807safe332–463345–474677–937safer315–481327–491642–972
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction65.1769.21safe60.96–69.3964.70–73.72safer59.65–70.6963.37–75.05
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2812.5124.80safe9.43–15.149.57–15.4619.00–30.60safer8.54–16.038.65–16.3817.19–32.40
Offsides
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.743.33safe0.38–2.800.58–2.900.95–5.70safer0.03–3.140.24–3.230.28–6.38
Yellow cards
34%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.823.42safe0.54–2.650.70–2.941.24–5.59safer0.27–2.920.41–3.230.68–6.15
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.040.12safe0.00–0.230.00–0.230.00–0.46safer0.00–0.380.00–0.380.00–0.76
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.692.785.47safe1.28–4.111.23–4.332.50–8.44safer0.89–4.490.79–4.761.68–9.26
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.45–2.37 0.19–2.63 | 3.00 | 1.19 0.33–2.05 0.08–2.29 | 1.00 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.27–4.93 | 4.00 | 42% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.42 2.56–6.27 2.06–6.77 | — | 5.09 3.39–6.80 2.92–7.27 | — | 9.51 5.95–13.07 4.98–14.04 | — | 35% 52% |
| Total shots | 12.38 8.68–16.08 7.65–17.11 | — | 12.06 8.68–15.43 7.75–16.37 | — | 24.44 17.35–31.52 15.39–33.48 | — | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 4.49 1.98–7.01 1.11–7.87 | — | 7.26 4.95–9.56 4.16–10.35 | — | 11.75 6.93–16.57 5.27–18.23 | — | 17% 75% |
| Blocked shots | 2.53 0.95–4.11 0.41–4.65 | — | 3.17 1.76–4.59 1.27–5.08 | — | 5.70 2.71–8.70 1.68–9.72 | — | 31% 17% 52% |
| Corners | 4.24 2.03–6.44 1.44–7.04 | — | 3.73 1.76–5.71 1.22–6.25 | — | 7.97 3.79–12.16 2.66–13.29 | — | 50% 14% 36% |
| Possession % | 49.95 43.63–56.27 42.04–57.87 | — | 48.77 42.45–55.09 40.85–56.68 | — | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 398 332–463 315–481 | — | 409 345–474 327–491 | — | 807 677–937 642–972 | — | 46% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.17 60.96–69.39 59.65–70.69 | — | 69.21 64.70–73.72 63.37–75.05 | — | — | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 12.28 9.43–15.14 8.54–16.03 | — | 12.51 9.57–15.46 8.65–16.38 | — | 24.80 19.00–30.60 17.19–32.40 | — | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.38–2.80 0.03–3.14 | — | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.24–3.23 | — | 3.33 0.95–5.70 0.28–6.38 | — | 35% 23% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.54–2.65 0.27–2.92 | — | 1.82 0.70–2.94 0.41–3.23 | — | 3.42 1.24–5.59 0.68–6.15 | — | 34% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | — | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.69 1.28–4.11 0.89–4.49 | — | 2.78 1.23–4.33 0.79–4.76 | — | 5.47 2.50–8.44 1.68–9.26 | — | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.