FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
51%
25%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.072.71safe0.68–2.600.21–1.930.89–4.53safer0.42–2.860.00–2.180.38–5.04actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.313.158.46safe3.46–7.171.44–4.864.90–12.03safer2.96–7.670.97–5.333.93–13.00
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5110.0824.60safe10.81–18.226.70–13.4617.52–31.68safer9.78–19.255.77–14.3915.55–33.64
Shots in box
90%
homeawaytotalprediction10.054.6514.70safe7.53–12.572.35–6.959.88–19.52safer6.67–13.431.55–7.758.22–21.18
Blocked shots
65%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.772.306.07safe2.19–5.360.89–3.723.08–9.07safer1.65–5.890.40–4.202.05–10.09
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.914.2610.17safe3.71–8.122.28–6.245.99–14.36safer3.11–8.711.74–6.784.86–15.49
Possession %
79%
18%
homeawayprediction56.5342.89safe50.22–62.8536.57–49.21safer48.62–64.4534.97–50.81
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction465324789safe400–531259–389659–919safer382–548242–406624–954
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction76.8464.27safe72.62–81.0559.76–68.78safer71.32–82.3558.43–70.11
Fouls
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8211.4722.29safe7.96–13.678.53–14.4216.48–28.09safer7.07–14.567.61–15.3314.68–29.89
Offsides
44%
20%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.201.974.17safe0.99–3.410.81–3.131.79–6.54safer0.64–3.750.47–3.461.12–7.21
Yellow cards
33%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.793.29safe0.45–2.560.67–2.911.11–5.47safer0.18–2.830.38–3.200.55–6.03
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
42%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.922.925.83safe1.50–4.331.36–4.472.87–8.80safer1.11–4.720.93–4.902.04–9.62
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.64 0.68–2.60 0.42–2.86 | 3.00 | 1.07 0.21–1.93 0.00–2.18 | 1.00 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.38–5.04 | 4.00 | 51% 25% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.31 3.46–7.17 2.96–7.67 | — | 3.15 1.44–4.86 0.97–5.33 | — | 8.46 4.90–12.03 3.93–13.00 | — | 72% 18% |
| Total shots | 14.51 10.81–18.22 9.78–19.25 | — | 10.08 6.70–13.46 5.77–14.39 | — | 24.60 17.52–31.68 15.55–33.64 | — | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.05 7.53–12.57 6.67–13.43 | — | 4.65 2.35–6.95 1.55–7.75 | — | 14.70 9.88–19.52 8.22–21.18 | — | 90% |
| Blocked shots | 3.77 2.19–5.36 1.65–5.89 | — | 2.30 0.89–3.72 0.40–4.20 | — | 6.07 3.08–9.07 2.05–10.09 | — | 65% 14% 21% |
| Corners | 5.91 3.71–8.12 3.11–8.71 | — | 4.26 2.28–6.24 1.74–6.78 | — | 10.17 5.99–14.36 4.86–15.49 | — | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 56.53 50.22–62.85 48.62–64.45 | — | 42.89 36.57–49.21 34.97–50.81 | — | — | — | 79% 18% |
| Passes | 465 400–531 382–548 | — | 324 259–389 242–406 | — | 789 659–919 624–954 | — | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.84 72.62–81.05 71.32–82.35 | — | 64.27 59.76–68.78 58.43–70.11 | — | — | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 10.82 7.96–13.67 7.07–14.56 | — | 11.47 8.53–14.42 7.61–15.33 | — | 22.29 16.48–28.09 14.68–29.89 | — | 40% 51% |
| Offsides | 2.20 0.99–3.41 0.64–3.75 | — | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.47–3.46 | — | 4.17 1.79–6.54 1.12–7.21 | — | 44% 20% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.56 0.18–2.83 | — | 1.79 0.67–2.91 0.38–3.20 | — | 3.29 1.11–5.47 0.55–6.03 | — | 33% 23% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | — | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.92 1.50–4.33 1.11–4.72 | — | 2.92 1.36–4.47 0.93–4.90 | — | 5.83 2.87–8.80 2.04–9.62 | — | 42% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+