FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
40%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.222.60safe0.42–2.340.36–2.080.78–4.43safer0.16–2.600.12–2.330.27–4.93actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
79%
homeawaytotalprediction5.712.838.54safe3.85–7.561.12–4.544.97–12.10safer3.35–8.060.65–5.014.01–13.07
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction14.097.6121.70safe10.39–17.794.23–10.9914.62–28.78safer9.36–18.823.30–11.9212.66–30.75
Shots in box
47%
23%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.383.16safe0.00–4.300.00–3.680.00–7.98safer0.00–5.160.00–4.480.00–9.64
Blocked shots
39%
44%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction0.690.351.04safe0.00–2.270.00–1.760.00–4.04safer0.00–2.810.00–2.250.00–5.06
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.504.119.61safe3.29–7.712.13–6.095.43–13.80safer2.70–8.301.60–6.634.30–14.93
Possession %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction51.9546.95safe45.64–58.2740.63–53.27safer44.04–59.8739.03–54.87
Passes
61%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction410376786safe345–475311–440656–916safer327–493294–458621–951
Pass accuracy %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction67.4367.36safe63.22–71.6562.85–71.86safer61.92–72.9561.52–73.19
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1813.3725.56safe9.33–15.0410.43–16.3219.75–31.36safer8.44–15.929.51–17.2417.95–33.16
Offsides
49%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.443.40safe0.74–3.160.28–2.611.02–5.77safer0.40–3.500.00–2.940.35–6.44
Yellow cards
31%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.873.36safe0.44–2.550.75–2.991.19–5.54safer0.17–2.820.46–3.280.62–6.10
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
35%
19%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.222.534.75safe0.81–3.630.98–4.081.78–7.72safer0.42–4.020.54–4.520.96–8.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.42–2.34 0.16–2.60 | 2.00 | 1.22 0.36–2.08 0.12–2.33 | 1.00 | 2.60 0.78–4.43 0.27–4.93 | 3.00 | 40% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 5.71 3.85–7.56 3.35–8.06 | — | 2.83 1.12–4.54 0.65–5.01 | — | 8.54 4.97–12.10 4.01–13.07 | — | 79% |
| Total shots | 14.09 10.39–17.79 9.36–18.82 | — | 7.61 4.23–10.99 3.30–11.92 | — | 21.70 14.62–28.78 12.66–30.75 | — | 90% |
| Shots in box | 1.78 0.00–4.30 0.00–5.16 | — | 1.38 0.00–3.68 0.00–4.48 | — | 3.16 0.00–7.98 0.00–9.64 | — | 47% 23% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 0.69 0.00–2.27 0.00–2.81 | — | 0.35 0.00–1.76 0.00–2.25 | — | 1.04 0.00–4.04 0.00–5.06 | — | 39% 44% 17% |
| Corners | 5.50 3.29–7.71 2.70–8.30 | — | 4.11 2.13–6.09 1.60–6.63 | — | 9.61 5.43–13.80 4.30–14.93 | — | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 51.95 45.64–58.27 44.04–59.87 | — | 46.95 40.63–53.27 39.03–54.87 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Passes | 410 345–475 327–493 | — | 376 311–440 294–458 | — | 786 656–916 621–951 | — | 61% 38% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.43 63.22–71.65 61.92–72.95 | — | 67.36 62.85–71.86 61.52–73.19 | — | — | — | 48% 47% |
| Fouls | 12.18 9.33–15.04 8.44–15.92 | — | 13.37 10.43–16.32 9.51–17.24 | — | 25.56 19.75–31.36 17.95–33.16 | — | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.74–3.16 0.40–3.50 | — | 1.44 0.28–2.61 0.00–2.94 | — | 3.40 1.02–5.77 0.35–6.44 | — | 49% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.44–2.55 0.17–2.82 | — | 1.87 0.75–2.99 0.46–3.28 | — | 3.36 1.19–5.54 0.62–6.10 | — | 31% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.22 0.81–3.63 0.42–4.02 | — | 2.53 0.98–4.08 0.54–4.52 | — | 4.75 1.78–7.72 0.96–8.54 | — | 35% 19% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.