FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
43%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.242.71safe0.51–2.430.38–2.090.89–4.53safer0.25–2.700.13–2.340.38–5.04actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.863.718.57safe3.00–6.722.00–5.425.00–12.13safer2.50–7.211.53–5.884.04–13.10
Total shots
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction11.138.3719.50safe7.42–14.834.99–11.7512.42–26.58safer6.39–15.864.06–12.6810.45–28.54
Shots in box
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.362.79safe0.00–3.950.00–3.660.00–7.61safer0.00–4.820.00–4.450.00–9.27
Blocked shots
36%
47%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction0.610.340.94safe0.00–2.190.00–1.750.00–3.94safer0.00–2.720.00–2.240.00–4.96
Corners
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.104.609.70safe2.89–7.302.62–6.585.52–13.88safer2.30–7.902.09–7.124.38–15.01
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction48.9150.95safe42.59–55.2344.63–57.27safer40.99–56.8243.03–58.87
Passes
41%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction345370715safe279–410305–434585–845safer262–428288–452550–880
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction65.4469.94safe61.23–69.6665.43–74.44safer59.93–70.9664.10–75.77
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6311.4924.12safe9.77–15.498.54–14.4318.32–29.92safer8.89–16.377.62–15.3516.51–31.72
Offsides
26%
42%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction0.560.651.21safe0.00–1.770.00–1.810.00–3.58safer0.00–2.120.00–2.140.00–4.26
Yellow cards
36%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.793.47safe0.62–2.730.67–2.911.29–5.64safer0.35–3.000.38–3.200.73–6.20
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.17safe0.00–0.260.00–0.260.00–0.52safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
33%
27%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.292.44safe0.00–2.560.00–2.850.00–5.41safer0.00–2.950.00–3.280.00–6.23
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.51–2.43 0.25–2.70 | 2.00 | 1.24 0.38–2.09 0.13–2.34 | 0.00 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.38–5.04 | 2.00 | 43% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.86 3.00–6.72 2.50–7.21 | — | 3.71 2.00–5.42 1.53–5.88 | — | 8.57 5.00–12.13 4.04–13.10 | — | 59% 28% |
| Total shots | 11.13 7.42–14.83 6.39–15.86 | — | 8.37 4.99–11.75 4.06–12.68 | — | 19.50 12.42–26.58 10.45–28.54 | — | 70% 23% |
| Shots in box | 1.43 0.00–3.95 0.00–4.82 | — | 1.36 0.00–3.66 0.00–4.45 | — | 2.79 0.00–7.61 0.00–9.27 | — | 39% 25% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 0.61 0.00–2.19 0.00–2.72 | — | 0.34 0.00–1.75 0.00–2.24 | — | 0.94 0.00–3.94 0.00–4.96 | — | 36% 47% 17% |
| Corners | 5.10 2.89–7.30 2.30–7.90 | — | 4.60 2.62–6.58 2.09–7.12 | — | 9.70 5.52–13.88 4.38–15.01 | — | 50% 37% |
| Possession % | 48.91 42.59–55.23 40.99–56.82 | — | 50.95 44.63–57.27 43.03–58.87 | — | — | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 345 279–410 262–428 | — | 370 305–434 288–452 | — | 715 585–845 550–880 | — | 41% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.44 61.23–69.66 59.93–70.96 | — | 69.94 65.43–74.44 64.10–75.77 | — | — | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 12.63 9.77–15.49 8.89–16.37 | — | 11.49 8.54–14.43 7.62–15.35 | — | 24.12 18.32–29.92 16.51–31.72 | — | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 0.56 0.00–1.77 0.00–2.12 | — | 0.65 0.00–1.81 0.00–2.14 | — | 1.21 0.00–3.58 0.00–4.26 | — | 26% 42% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.62–2.73 0.35–3.00 | — | 1.79 0.67–2.91 0.38–3.20 | — | 3.47 1.29–5.64 0.73–6.20 | — | 36% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.15 0.00–2.56 0.00–2.95 | — | 1.29 0.00–2.85 0.00–3.28 | — | 2.44 0.00–5.41 0.00–6.23 | — | 33% 27% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.