FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
31%
25%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.592.87safe0.32–2.240.73–2.451.05–4.69safer0.06–2.500.48–2.690.54–5.20actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
34%
13%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.024.758.77safe2.16–5.883.05–6.465.21–12.34safer1.67–6.382.58–6.934.24–13.31
Total shots
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2613.2624.52safe7.56–14.979.88–16.6317.44–31.60safer6.53–16.008.95–17.5715.48–33.56
Shots in box
25%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction8.0610.3918.45safe5.55–10.588.09–12.6913.63–23.27safer4.68–11.447.29–13.4911.97–24.93
Blocked shots
42%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.383.416.79safe1.80–4.971.99–4.823.79–9.79safer1.27–5.501.51–5.312.77–10.81
Corners
33%
14%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.864.608.46safe1.65–6.062.62–6.584.28–12.64safer1.06–6.662.08–7.123.14–13.78
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction46.1854.56safe39.86–52.5048.24–60.88safer38.26–54.0946.64–62.48
Passes
20%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction385483867safe319–450418–547738–997safer302–468401–565702–1033
Pass accuracy %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction73.8476.27safe69.63–78.0671.76–80.78safer68.32–79.3670.43–82.11
Fouls
37%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4312.4923.91safe8.57–14.299.54–15.4318.11–29.72safer7.69–15.178.62–16.3516.31–31.52
Offsides
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.893.48safe0.38–2.800.73–3.051.11–5.86safer0.04–3.150.40–3.390.44–6.53
Yellow cards
39%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.803.62safe0.76–2.870.68–2.921.44–5.79safer0.49–3.140.39–3.210.88–6.36
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.060.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
36%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.562.875.43safe1.15–3.981.32–4.422.46–8.40safer0.76–4.360.88–4.861.64–9.22
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 0.32–2.24 0.06–2.50 | 2.00 | 1.59 0.73–2.45 0.48–2.69 | 1.00 | 2.87 1.05–4.69 0.54–5.20 | 3.00 | 31% 25% 45% |
| Shots on target | 4.02 2.16–5.88 1.67–6.38 | — | 4.75 3.05–6.46 2.58–6.93 | — | 8.77 5.21–12.34 4.24–13.31 | — | 34% 13% 53% |
| Total shots | 11.26 7.56–14.97 6.53–16.00 | — | 13.26 9.88–16.63 8.95–17.57 | — | 24.52 17.44–31.60 15.48–33.56 | — | 31% 62% |
| Shots in box | 8.06 5.55–10.58 4.68–11.44 | — | 10.39 8.09–12.69 7.29–13.49 | — | 18.45 13.63–23.27 11.97–24.93 | — | 25% 66% |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 1.80–4.97 1.27–5.50 | — | 3.41 1.99–4.82 1.51–5.31 | — | 6.79 3.79–9.79 2.77–10.81 | — | 42% 16% 43% |
| Corners | 3.86 1.65–6.06 1.06–6.66 | — | 4.60 2.62–6.58 2.08–7.12 | — | 8.46 4.28–12.64 3.14–13.78 | — | 33% 14% 53% |
| Possession % | 46.18 39.86–52.50 38.26–54.09 | — | 54.56 48.24–60.88 46.64–62.48 | — | — | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 385 319–450 302–468 | — | 483 418–547 401–565 | — | 867 738–997 702–1033 | — | 20% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.84 69.63–78.06 68.32–79.36 | — | 76.27 71.76–80.78 70.43–82.11 | — | — | — | 36% 59% |
| Fouls | 11.43 8.57–14.29 7.69–15.17 | — | 12.49 9.54–15.43 8.62–16.35 | — | 23.91 18.11–29.72 16.31–31.52 | — | 37% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.38–2.80 0.04–3.15 | — | 1.89 0.73–3.05 0.40–3.39 | — | 3.48 1.11–5.86 0.44–6.53 | — | 33% 22% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.76–2.87 0.49–3.14 | — | 1.80 0.68–2.92 0.39–3.21 | — | 3.62 1.44–5.79 0.88–6.36 | — | 39% 22% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | — | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.56 1.15–3.98 0.76–4.36 | — | 2.87 1.32–4.42 0.88–4.86 | — | 5.43 2.46–8.40 1.64–9.22 | — | 36% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.