FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
48%
25%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.172.81safe0.67–2.600.31–2.030.98–4.63safer0.41–2.860.07–2.280.48–5.13actual4.001.005.00
Shots on target
37%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.264.718.97safe2.40–6.113.00–6.425.41–12.53safer1.90–6.612.54–6.894.44–13.50
Total shots
64%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3611.0424.41safe9.66–17.077.67–14.4217.32–31.49safer8.63–18.106.73–15.3515.36–33.45
Shots in box
17%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction3.135.358.48safe0.62–5.653.05–7.653.67–13.30safer0.00–6.512.26–8.452.01–14.96
Blocked shots
23%
19%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.502.413.91safe0.00–3.080.99–3.820.91–6.91safer0.00–3.620.51–4.310.00–7.93
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.053.959.00safe2.84–7.251.97–5.934.82–13.18safer2.25–7.851.44–6.473.68–14.31
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction51.1848.44safe44.86–57.5042.12–54.76safer43.27–59.1040.52–56.35
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction428367795safe363–493303–432665–925safer345–511285–449630–960
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction67.0667.31safe62.85–71.2862.81–71.82safer61.55–72.5861.48–73.15
Fouls
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4611.6623.12safe8.60–14.328.71–14.6017.31–28.92safer7.72–15.207.79–15.5215.51–30.72
Offsides
34%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.823.39safe0.36–2.780.65–2.981.01–5.76safer0.02–3.120.32–3.310.34–6.43
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.793.40safe0.56–2.670.67–2.911.22–5.57safer0.28–2.940.38–3.200.66–6.14
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.050.14safe0.00–0.240.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.002.965.96safe1.59–4.411.41–4.512.99–8.93safer1.20–4.800.97–4.952.17–9.75
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.63 0.67–2.60 0.41–2.86 | 4.00 | 1.17 0.31–2.03 0.07–2.28 | 1.00 | 2.81 0.98–4.63 0.48–5.13 | 5.00 | 48% 25% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.26 2.40–6.11 1.90–6.61 | — | 4.71 3.00–6.42 2.54–6.89 | — | 8.97 5.41–12.53 4.44–13.50 | — | 37% 13% 49% |
| Total shots | 13.36 9.66–17.07 8.63–18.10 | — | 11.04 7.67–14.42 6.73–15.35 | — | 24.41 17.32–31.49 15.36–33.45 | — | 64% 28% |
| Shots in box | 3.13 0.62–5.65 0.00–6.51 | — | 5.35 3.05–7.65 2.26–8.45 | — | 8.48 3.67–13.30 2.01–14.96 | — | 17% 72% |
| Blocked shots | 1.50 0.00–3.08 0.00–3.62 | — | 2.41 0.99–3.82 0.51–4.31 | — | 3.91 0.91–6.91 0.00–7.93 | — | 23% 19% 58% |
| Corners | 5.05 2.84–7.25 2.25–7.85 | — | 3.95 1.97–5.93 1.44–6.47 | — | 9.00 4.82–13.18 3.68–14.31 | — | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 51.18 44.86–57.50 43.27–59.10 | — | 48.44 42.12–54.76 40.52–56.35 | — | — | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 428 363–493 345–511 | — | 367 303–432 285–449 | — | 795 665–925 630–960 | — | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.06 62.85–71.28 61.55–72.58 | — | 67.31 62.81–71.82 61.48–73.15 | — | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 11.46 8.60–14.32 7.72–15.20 | — | 11.66 8.71–14.60 7.79–15.52 | — | 23.12 17.31–28.92 15.51–30.72 | — | 44% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.36–2.78 0.02–3.12 | — | 1.82 0.65–2.98 0.32–3.31 | — | 3.39 1.01–5.76 0.34–6.43 | — | 34% 23% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.67 0.28–2.94 | — | 1.79 0.67–2.91 0.38–3.20 | — | 3.40 1.22–5.57 0.66–6.14 | — | 35% 23% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | — | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.59–4.41 1.20–4.80 | — | 2.96 1.41–4.51 0.97–4.95 | — | 5.96 2.99–8.93 2.17–9.75 | — | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+