FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
42%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.272.77safe0.53–2.460.42–2.130.95–4.59safer0.27–2.720.17–2.380.44–5.10actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.503.928.42safe2.64–6.352.21–5.634.85–11.98safer2.14–6.851.74–6.103.89–12.95
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9912.1225.11safe9.29–16.708.74–15.5018.03–32.20safer8.26–17.737.81–16.4316.07–34.16
Shots in box
46%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.835.6711.50safe3.31–8.343.37–7.976.68–16.32safer2.45–9.212.57–8.775.02–17.98
Blocked shots
39%
18%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.552.685.22safe0.96–4.131.26–4.092.22–8.22safer0.43–4.670.77–4.581.20–9.24
Corners
42%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.244.318.55safe2.04–6.452.33–6.284.37–12.73safer1.44–7.041.79–6.823.23–13.86
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.6049.49safe45.28–57.9143.17–55.81safer43.68–59.5141.57–57.40
Passes
72%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction442374816safe377–507310–439686–946safer359–525292–456651–981
Pass accuracy %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction72.1568.37safe67.93–76.3663.86–72.88safer66.63–77.6662.53–74.21
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1711.4523.62safe9.31–15.038.51–14.4017.82–29.42safer8.43–15.917.59–15.3216.02–31.23
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.022.004.02safe0.81–3.230.84–3.161.65–6.40safer0.47–3.580.51–3.500.98–7.07
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.783.52safe0.68–2.790.66–2.901.34–5.70safer0.41–3.060.37–3.190.78–6.26
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
37%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.853.166.01safe1.43–4.261.61–4.713.04–8.98safer1.04–4.651.18–5.152.22–9.80
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.53–2.46 0.27–2.72 | 1.00 | 1.27 0.42–2.13 0.17–2.38 | 3.00 | 2.77 0.95–4.59 0.44–5.10 | 4.00 | 42% 25% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.50 2.64–6.35 2.14–6.85 | — | 3.92 2.21–5.63 1.74–6.10 | — | 8.42 4.85–11.98 3.89–12.95 | — | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 12.99 9.29–16.70 8.26–17.73 | — | 12.12 8.74–15.50 7.81–16.43 | — | 25.11 18.03–32.20 16.07–34.16 | — | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 5.83 3.31–8.34 2.45–9.21 | — | 5.67 3.37–7.97 2.57–8.77 | — | 11.50 6.68–16.32 5.02–17.98 | — | 46% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 2.55 0.96–4.13 0.43–4.67 | — | 2.68 1.26–4.09 0.77–4.58 | — | 5.22 2.22–8.22 1.20–9.24 | — | 39% 18% 43% |
| Corners | 4.24 2.04–6.45 1.44–7.04 | — | 4.31 2.33–6.28 1.79–6.82 | — | 8.55 4.37–12.73 3.23–13.86 | — | 42% 14% 44% |
| Possession % | 51.60 45.28–57.91 43.68–59.51 | — | 49.49 43.17–55.81 41.57–57.40 | — | — | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 442 377–507 359–525 | — | 374 310–439 292–456 | — | 816 686–946 651–981 | — | 72% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.15 67.93–76.36 66.63–77.66 | — | 68.37 63.86–72.88 62.53–74.21 | — | — | — | 66% 30% |
| Fouls | 12.17 9.31–15.03 8.43–15.91 | — | 11.45 8.51–14.40 7.59–15.32 | — | 23.62 17.82–29.42 16.02–31.23 | — | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 2.02 0.81–3.23 0.47–3.58 | — | 2.00 0.84–3.16 0.51–3.50 | — | 4.02 1.65–6.40 0.98–7.07 | — | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.68–2.79 0.41–3.06 | — | 1.78 0.66–2.90 0.37–3.19 | — | 3.52 1.34–5.70 0.78–6.26 | — | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.43–4.26 1.04–4.65 | — | 3.16 1.61–4.71 1.18–5.15 | — | 6.01 3.04–8.98 2.22–9.80 | — | 37% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+