FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
44%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.212.70safe0.52–2.450.35–2.070.87–4.52safer0.26–2.710.10–2.320.37–5.02actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.844.279.11safe2.99–6.702.56–5.975.55–12.67safer2.49–7.202.09–6.444.58–13.64
Total shots
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction11.579.7121.27safe7.87–15.276.33–13.0814.19–28.36safer6.83–16.305.40–14.0212.23–30.32
Shots in box
53%
21%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.051.403.45safe0.00–4.570.00–3.700.00–8.27safer0.00–5.430.00–4.500.00–9.93
Blocked shots
24%
53%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction0.400.370.77safe0.00–1.990.00–1.790.00–3.77safer0.00–2.520.00–2.270.00–4.79
Corners
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.204.499.69safe2.99–7.402.51–6.475.51–13.87safer2.40–8.001.98–7.014.37–15.00
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction51.8047.10safe45.48–58.1240.78–53.42safer43.89–59.7239.18–55.01
Passes
65%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction419374794safe354–485310–439664–923safer336–502292–456628–959
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction70.6568.14safe66.44–74.8763.63–72.64safer65.14–76.1762.30–73.97
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1912.1523.35safe8.34–14.059.21–15.1017.55–29.15safer7.45–14.948.29–16.0215.74–30.95
Offsides
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.422.91safe0.29–2.710.26–2.580.54–5.29safer0.00–3.050.00–2.910.00–5.96
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.913.52safe0.55–2.660.79–3.031.34–5.69safer0.27–2.930.50–3.320.78–6.26
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.402.444.83safe0.98–3.810.88–3.991.87–7.80safer0.59–4.200.45–4.421.04–8.62
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.52–2.45 0.26–2.71 | 0.00 | 1.21 0.35–2.07 0.10–2.32 | 1.00 | 2.70 0.87–4.52 0.37–5.02 | 1.00 | 44% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.84 2.99–6.70 2.49–7.20 | — | 4.27 2.56–5.97 2.09–6.44 | — | 9.11 5.55–12.67 4.58–13.64 | — | 51% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 11.57 7.87–15.27 6.83–16.30 | — | 9.71 6.33–13.08 5.40–14.02 | — | 21.27 14.19–28.36 12.23–30.32 | — | 62% 30% |
| Shots in box | 2.05 0.00–4.57 0.00–5.43 | — | 1.40 0.00–3.70 0.00–4.50 | — | 3.45 0.00–8.27 0.00–9.93 | — | 53% 21% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 0.40 0.00–1.99 0.00–2.52 | — | 0.37 0.00–1.79 0.00–2.27 | — | 0.77 0.00–3.77 0.00–4.79 | — | 24% 53% 22% |
| Corners | 5.20 2.99–7.40 2.40–8.00 | — | 4.49 2.51–6.47 1.98–7.01 | — | 9.69 5.51–13.87 4.37–15.00 | — | 52% 35% |
| Possession % | 51.80 45.48–58.12 43.89–59.72 | — | 47.10 40.78–53.42 39.18–55.01 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 419 354–485 336–502 | — | 374 310–439 292–456 | — | 794 664–923 628–959 | — | 65% 35% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.65 66.44–74.87 65.14–76.17 | — | 68.14 63.63–72.64 62.30–73.97 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 11.19 8.34–14.05 7.45–14.94 | — | 12.15 9.21–15.10 8.29–16.02 | — | 23.35 17.55–29.15 15.74–30.95 | — | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.29–2.71 0.00–3.05 | — | 1.42 0.26–2.58 0.00–2.91 | — | 2.91 0.54–5.29 0.00–5.96 | — | 39% 25% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.66 0.27–2.93 | — | 1.91 0.79–3.03 0.50–3.32 | — | 3.52 1.34–5.69 0.78–6.26 | — | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.40 0.98–3.81 0.59–4.20 | — | 2.44 0.88–3.99 0.45–4.42 | — | 4.83 1.87–7.80 1.04–8.62 | — | 40% 19% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.