FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
64%
20%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.040.882.93safe1.08–3.010.02–1.741.11–4.75safer0.82–3.270.00–1.990.60–5.26actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.373.288.64safe3.51–7.221.57–4.985.08–12.20safer3.01–7.721.10–5.454.11–13.17
Total shots
78%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction13.869.5823.44safe10.15–17.566.20–12.9616.36–30.52safer9.12–18.595.27–13.8914.40–32.48
Shots in box
93%
homeawaytotalprediction9.783.9913.76safe7.26–12.291.68–6.298.94–18.58safer6.40–13.160.89–7.087.28–20.24
Blocked shots
68%
13%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction3.892.246.13safe2.31–5.480.82–3.653.13–9.13safer1.77–6.010.34–4.142.11–10.15
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction5.833.138.96safe3.62–8.031.15–5.114.77–13.14safer3.03–8.630.61–5.643.64–14.27
Possession %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction56.2542.87safe49.93–62.5636.55–49.19safer48.33–64.1634.96–50.79
Passes
87%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction458327785safe393–523262–392655–915safer375–541245–409620–950
Pass accuracy %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction75.2667.36safe71.05–79.4862.86–71.87safer69.75–80.7861.52–73.20
Fouls
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3414.1826.52safe9.49–15.2011.23–17.1220.72–32.32safer8.60–16.0910.31–18.0418.91–34.13
Offsides
46%
21%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.051.743.79safe0.84–3.260.58–2.911.42–6.17safer0.50–3.600.25–3.240.74–6.84
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.883.60safe0.66–2.770.76–3.001.42–5.78safer0.39–3.050.47–3.290.86–6.34
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.050.11safe0.00–0.210.00–0.240.00–0.45safer0.00–0.360.00–0.390.00–0.75
GK saves
32%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.643.255.89safe1.23–4.051.69–4.802.92–8.86safer0.84–4.441.26–5.232.10–9.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.04 1.08–3.01 0.82–3.27 | 1.00 | 0.88 0.02–1.74 0.00–1.99 | 0.00 | 2.93 1.11–4.75 0.60–5.26 | 1.00 | 64% 20% 15% |
| Shots on target | 5.37 3.51–7.22 3.01–7.72 | — | 3.28 1.57–4.98 1.10–5.45 | — | 8.64 5.08–12.20 4.11–13.17 | — | 71% 19% |
| Total shots | 13.86 10.15–17.56 9.12–18.59 | — | 9.58 6.20–12.96 5.27–13.89 | — | 23.44 16.36–30.52 14.40–32.48 | — | 78% 16% |
| Shots in box | 9.78 7.26–12.29 6.40–13.16 | — | 3.99 1.68–6.29 0.89–7.08 | — | 13.76 8.94–18.58 7.28–20.24 | — | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 3.89 2.31–5.48 1.77–6.01 | — | 2.24 0.82–3.65 0.34–4.14 | — | 6.13 3.13–9.13 2.11–10.15 | — | 68% 13% 19% |
| Corners | 5.83 3.62–8.03 3.03–8.63 | — | 3.13 1.15–5.11 0.61–5.64 | — | 8.96 4.77–13.14 3.64–14.27 | — | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 56.25 49.93–62.56 48.33–64.16 | — | 42.87 36.55–49.19 34.96–50.79 | — | — | — | 78% 18% |
| Passes | 458 393–523 375–541 | — | 327 262–392 245–409 | — | 785 655–915 620–950 | — | 87% 13% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.26 71.05–79.48 69.75–80.78 | — | 67.36 62.86–71.87 61.52–73.20 | — | — | — | 82% 15% |
| Fouls | 12.34 9.49–15.20 8.60–16.09 | — | 14.18 11.23–17.12 10.31–18.04 | — | 26.52 20.72–32.32 18.91–34.13 | — | 33% 60% |
| Offsides | 2.05 0.84–3.26 0.50–3.60 | — | 1.74 0.58–2.91 0.25–3.24 | — | 3.79 1.42–6.17 0.74–6.84 | — | 46% 21% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.66–2.77 0.39–3.05 | — | 1.88 0.76–3.00 0.47–3.29 | — | 3.60 1.42–5.78 0.86–6.34 | — | 36% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.11 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | — | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.64 1.23–4.05 0.84–4.44 | — | 3.25 1.69–4.80 1.26–5.23 | — | 5.89 2.92–8.86 2.10–9.68 | — | 32% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.