FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
43%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.172.61safe0.47–2.400.31–2.030.78–4.43safer0.21–2.660.07–2.280.28–4.94actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
46%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.794.599.38safe2.93–6.642.88–6.295.81–12.94safer2.43–7.142.41–6.764.84–13.91
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5511.8224.37safe8.84–16.258.44–15.2017.29–31.45safer7.81–17.287.51–16.1315.32–33.41
Shots in box
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.162.887.04safe1.65–6.680.58–5.182.23–11.86safer0.78–7.540.00–5.980.56–13.52
Blocked shots
48%
26%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.062.57safe0.00–3.090.00–2.480.00–5.57safer0.00–3.630.00–2.960.00–6.59
Corners
54%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.323.567.88safe2.11–6.521.58–5.543.69–12.06safer1.52–7.121.04–6.072.56–13.19
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction52.2346.77safe45.91–58.5540.45–53.09safer44.31–60.1438.85–54.69
Passes
67%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction438386824safe373–504321–450694–954safer355–521304–468659–989
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction70.7868.41safe66.56–75.0063.91–72.92safer65.26–76.3062.58–74.25
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4612.1724.62safe9.60–15.319.22–15.1118.82–30.43safer8.72–16.208.30–16.0317.02–32.23
Offsides
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.112.184.29safe0.90–3.321.02–3.341.92–6.66safer0.56–3.670.68–3.671.24–7.34
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.773.37safe0.55–2.660.65–2.891.20–5.55safer0.27–2.930.36–3.180.63–6.11
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.060.17safe0.00–0.260.00–0.250.00–0.51safer0.00–0.420.00–0.390.00–0.81
GK saves
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.253.066.31safe1.84–4.661.50–4.613.34–9.27safer1.45–5.051.07–5.042.52–10.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.47–2.40 0.21–2.66 | 2.00 | 1.17 0.31–2.03 0.07–2.28 | 1.00 | 2.61 0.78–4.43 0.28–4.94 | 3.00 | 43% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.79 2.93–6.64 2.43–7.14 | — | 4.59 2.88–6.29 2.41–6.76 | — | 9.38 5.81–12.94 4.84–13.91 | — | 46% 13% 41% |
| Total shots | 12.55 8.84–16.25 7.81–17.28 | — | 11.82 8.44–15.20 7.51–16.13 | — | 24.37 17.29–31.45 15.32–33.41 | — | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 4.16 1.65–6.68 0.78–7.54 | — | 2.88 0.58–5.18 0.00–5.98 | — | 7.04 2.23–11.86 0.56–13.52 | — | 61% 14% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 1.51 0.00–3.09 0.00–3.63 | — | 1.06 0.00–2.48 0.00–2.96 | — | 2.57 0.00–5.57 0.00–6.59 | — | 48% 26% 27% |
| Corners | 4.32 2.11–6.52 1.52–7.12 | — | 3.56 1.58–5.54 1.04–6.07 | — | 7.88 3.69–12.06 2.56–13.19 | — | 54% 14% 32% |
| Possession % | 52.23 45.91–58.55 44.31–60.14 | — | 46.77 40.45–53.09 38.85–54.69 | — | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 438 373–504 355–521 | — | 386 321–450 304–468 | — | 824 694–954 659–989 | — | 67% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.78 66.56–75.00 65.26–76.30 | — | 68.41 63.91–72.92 62.58–74.25 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 12.46 9.60–15.31 8.72–16.20 | — | 12.17 9.22–15.11 8.30–16.03 | — | 24.62 18.82–30.43 17.02–32.23 | — | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 2.11 0.90–3.32 0.56–3.67 | — | 2.18 1.02–3.34 0.68–3.67 | — | 4.29 1.92–6.66 1.24–7.34 | — | 39% 20% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.66 0.27–2.93 | — | 1.77 0.65–2.89 0.36–3.18 | — | 3.37 1.20–5.55 0.63–6.11 | — | 35% 23% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.25 1.84–4.66 1.45–5.05 | — | 3.06 1.50–4.61 1.07–5.04 | — | 6.31 3.34–9.27 2.52–10.10 | — | 45% 16% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+