FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
47%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.122.65safe0.56–2.490.26–1.980.82–4.47safer0.30–2.750.02–2.230.32–4.98actual5.001.006.00
Shots on target
50%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.874.409.27safe3.02–6.732.69–6.115.71–12.84safer2.52–7.232.22–6.574.74–13.80
Total shots
41%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8013.5226.32safe9.10–16.5010.14–16.9019.24–33.40safer8.07–17.549.21–17.8317.28–35.36
Shots in box
87%
homeawaytotalprediction9.694.9114.60safe7.17–12.202.61–7.219.78–19.42safer6.31–13.071.81–8.018.12–21.08
Blocked shots
64%
15%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.612.255.86safe2.03–5.200.84–3.672.87–8.86safer1.49–5.730.35–4.151.84–9.88
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.564.359.90safe3.35–7.762.37–6.335.72–14.09safer2.76–8.361.83–6.864.59–15.22
Possession %
76%
21%
homeawayprediction55.9743.95safe49.65–62.2937.63–50.27safer48.06–63.8936.03–51.86
Passes
85%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction474351825safe409–540286–415695–955safer391–557269–433660–990
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction77.7566.40safe73.53–81.9661.89–70.90safer72.23–83.2660.56–72.23
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9611.3322.29safe8.10–13.828.39–14.2816.49–28.10safer7.22–14.707.47–15.2014.69–29.90
Offsides
41%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.102.024.12safe0.89–3.310.86–3.181.75–6.49safer0.55–3.650.52–3.511.07–7.17
Yellow cards
24%
21%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.312.093.40safe0.26–2.370.97–3.211.22–5.58safer0.00–2.640.68–3.500.66–6.14
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.952.975.93safe1.54–4.371.42–4.532.96–8.90safer1.15–4.760.99–4.962.14–9.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.56–2.49 0.30–2.75 | 5.00 | 1.12 0.26–1.98 0.02–2.23 | 1.00 | 2.65 0.82–4.47 0.32–4.98 | 6.00 | 47% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.87 3.02–6.73 2.52–7.23 | — | 4.40 2.69–6.11 2.22–6.57 | — | 9.27 5.71–12.84 4.74–13.80 | — | 50% 13% 37% |
| Total shots | 12.80 9.10–16.50 8.07–17.54 | — | 13.52 10.14–16.90 9.21–17.83 | — | 26.32 19.24–33.40 17.28–35.36 | — | 41% 52% |
| Shots in box | 9.69 7.17–12.20 6.31–13.07 | — | 4.91 2.61–7.21 1.81–8.01 | — | 14.60 9.78–19.42 8.12–21.08 | — | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 3.61 2.03–5.20 1.49–5.73 | — | 2.25 0.84–3.67 0.35–4.15 | — | 5.86 2.87–8.86 1.84–9.88 | — | 64% 15% 22% |
| Corners | 5.56 3.35–7.76 2.76–8.36 | — | 4.35 2.37–6.33 1.83–6.86 | — | 9.90 5.72–14.09 4.59–15.22 | — | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 55.97 49.65–62.29 48.06–63.89 | — | 43.95 37.63–50.27 36.03–51.86 | — | — | — | 76% 21% |
| Passes | 474 409–540 391–557 | — | 351 286–415 269–433 | — | 825 695–955 660–990 | — | 85% 14% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.75 73.53–81.96 72.23–83.26 | — | 66.40 61.89–70.90 60.56–72.23 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 10.96 8.10–13.82 7.22–14.70 | — | 11.33 8.39–14.28 7.47–15.20 | — | 22.29 16.49–28.10 14.69–29.90 | — | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 2.10 0.89–3.31 0.55–3.65 | — | 2.02 0.86–3.18 0.52–3.51 | — | 4.12 1.75–6.49 1.07–7.17 | — | 41% 20% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.31 0.26–2.37 0.00–2.64 | — | 2.09 0.97–3.21 0.68–3.50 | — | 3.40 1.22–5.58 0.66–6.14 | — | 24% 21% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | — | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | — | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.95 1.54–4.37 1.15–4.76 | — | 2.97 1.42–4.53 0.99–4.96 | — | 5.93 2.96–8.90 2.14–9.72 | — | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.