FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.152.66safe0.55–2.470.29–2.010.84–4.48safer0.29–2.730.05–2.260.33–4.99actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.354.7310.08safe3.49–7.203.03–6.446.52–13.64safer2.99–7.702.56–6.915.55–14.61
Total shots
52%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6213.8628.48safe10.92–18.3310.48–17.2421.40–35.57safer9.89–19.369.55–18.1719.44–37.53
Shots in box
61%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction8.276.6414.91safe5.76–10.794.34–8.9410.10–19.73safer4.89–11.653.54–9.748.43–21.39
Blocked shots
40%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.103.196.30safe1.52–4.691.78–4.613.30–9.30safer0.99–5.221.29–5.102.28–10.32
Corners
43%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.893.877.76safe1.68–6.091.89–5.853.58–11.95safer1.09–6.691.36–6.392.45–13.08
Possession %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction53.0546.47safe46.73–59.3640.15–52.79safer45.13–60.9638.55–54.38
Passes
81%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction456353809safe391–521288–418679–939safer373–539271–435644–974
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction72.6266.64safe68.41–76.8462.14–71.15safer67.10–78.1460.81–72.48
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9111.7823.70safe9.06–14.778.84–14.7317.89–29.50safer8.17–15.667.92–15.6416.09–31.30
Offsides
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.723.54safe0.61–3.030.56–2.881.16–5.91safer0.26–3.370.22–3.210.49–6.59
Yellow cards
32%
23%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.843.33safe0.44–2.550.72–2.961.15–5.50safer0.16–2.820.43–3.250.59–6.07
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.060.13safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.882.975.85safe1.46–4.291.41–4.522.88–8.81safer1.08–4.680.98–4.952.06–9.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.55–2.47 0.29–2.73 | 1.00 | 1.15 0.29–2.01 0.05–2.26 | 0.00 | 2.66 0.84–4.48 0.33–4.99 | 1.00 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.35 3.49–7.20 2.99–7.70 | — | 4.73 3.03–6.44 2.56–6.91 | — | 10.08 6.52–13.64 5.55–14.61 | — | 51% 36% |
| Total shots | 14.62 10.92–18.33 9.89–19.36 | — | 13.86 10.48–17.24 9.55–18.17 | — | 28.48 21.40–35.57 19.44–37.53 | — | 52% 41% |
| Shots in box | 8.27 5.76–10.79 4.89–11.65 | — | 6.64 4.34–8.94 3.54–9.74 | — | 14.91 10.10–19.73 8.43–21.39 | — | 61% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.10 1.52–4.69 0.99–5.22 | — | 3.19 1.78–4.61 1.29–5.10 | — | 6.30 3.30–9.30 2.28–10.32 | — | 40% 16% 43% |
| Corners | 3.89 1.68–6.09 1.09–6.69 | — | 3.87 1.89–5.85 1.36–6.39 | — | 7.76 3.58–11.95 2.45–13.08 | — | 43% 15% 42% |
| Possession % | 53.05 46.73–59.36 45.13–60.96 | — | 46.47 40.15–52.79 38.55–54.38 | — | — | — | 64% 32% |
| Passes | 456 391–521 373–539 | — | 353 288–418 271–435 | — | 809 679–939 644–974 | — | 81% 19% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.62 68.41–76.84 67.10–78.14 | — | 66.64 62.14–71.15 60.81–72.48 | — | — | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 11.91 9.06–14.77 8.17–15.66 | — | 11.78 8.84–14.73 7.92–15.64 | — | 23.70 17.89–29.50 16.09–31.30 | — | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.82 0.61–3.03 0.26–3.37 | — | 1.72 0.56–2.88 0.22–3.21 | — | 3.54 1.16–5.91 0.49–6.59 | — | 41% 22% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.44–2.55 0.16–2.82 | — | 1.84 0.72–2.96 0.43–3.25 | — | 3.33 1.15–5.50 0.59–6.07 | — | 32% 23% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | — | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.46–4.29 1.08–4.68 | — | 2.97 1.41–4.52 0.98–4.95 | — | 5.85 2.88–8.81 2.06–9.64 | — | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+