FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.222.62safe0.44–2.370.36–2.080.80–4.44safer0.18–2.630.11–2.320.29–4.95actual3.002.005.00
Shots on target
39%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.665.039.70safe2.81–6.523.32–6.746.13–13.26safer2.31–7.022.86–7.215.17–14.23
Total shots
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8413.4726.32safe9.14–16.5510.10–16.8519.23–33.40safer8.11–17.589.16–17.7817.27–35.36
Shots in box
85%
homeawaytotalprediction7.703.6911.39safe5.18–10.211.39–6.006.57–16.21safer4.32–11.080.60–6.794.91–17.87
Blocked shots
62%
17%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.791.644.42safe1.20–4.370.22–3.051.42–7.42safer0.67–4.900.00–3.540.40–8.44
Corners
51%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.694.088.77safe2.48–6.892.10–6.064.59–12.95safer1.89–7.491.57–6.603.45–14.09
Possession %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction52.2146.31safe45.89–58.5339.99–52.63safer44.30–60.1238.39–54.22
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction412351763safe346–477287–416633–893safer329–495269–433598–928
Pass accuracy %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction70.9964.84safe66.77–75.2060.33–69.34safer65.47–76.5059.00–70.67
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8812.1223.00safe8.02–13.749.17–15.0617.19–28.80safer7.14–14.628.25–15.9815.39–30.60
Offsides
37%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.294.38safe0.88–3.301.12–3.452.01–6.75safer0.54–3.650.79–3.781.33–7.43
Yellow cards
37%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.793.51safe0.66–2.770.67–2.911.33–5.68safer0.39–3.050.38–3.200.77–6.25
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
49%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.382.956.34safe1.97–4.801.40–4.513.37–9.30safer1.58–5.190.97–4.942.55–10.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.44–2.37 0.18–2.63 | 3.00 | 1.22 0.36–2.08 0.11–2.32 | 2.00 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.29–4.95 | 5.00 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.66 2.81–6.52 2.31–7.02 | — | 5.03 3.32–6.74 2.86–7.21 | — | 9.70 6.13–13.26 5.17–14.23 | — | 39% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.84 9.14–16.55 8.11–17.58 | — | 13.47 10.10–16.85 9.16–17.78 | — | 26.32 19.23–33.40 17.27–35.36 | — | 41% 51% |
| Shots in box | 7.70 5.18–10.21 4.32–11.08 | — | 3.69 1.39–6.00 0.60–6.79 | — | 11.39 6.57–16.21 4.91–17.87 | — | 85% |
| Blocked shots | 2.79 1.20–4.37 0.67–4.90 | — | 1.64 0.22–3.05 0.00–3.54 | — | 4.42 1.42–7.42 0.40–8.44 | — | 62% 17% 21% |
| Corners | 4.69 2.48–6.89 1.89–7.49 | — | 4.08 2.10–6.06 1.57–6.60 | — | 8.77 4.59–12.95 3.45–14.09 | — | 51% 13% 35% |
| Possession % | 52.21 45.89–58.53 44.30–60.12 | — | 46.31 39.99–52.63 38.39–54.22 | — | — | — | 62% 33% |
| Passes | 412 346–477 329–495 | — | 351 287–416 269–433 | — | 763 633–893 598–928 | — | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.99 66.77–75.20 65.47–76.50 | — | 64.84 60.33–69.34 59.00–70.67 | — | — | — | 76% 20% |
| Fouls | 10.88 8.02–13.74 7.14–14.62 | — | 12.12 9.17–15.06 8.25–15.98 | — | 23.00 17.19–28.80 15.39–30.60 | — | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 2.09 0.88–3.30 0.54–3.65 | — | 2.29 1.12–3.45 0.79–3.78 | — | 4.38 2.01–6.75 1.33–7.43 | — | 37% 20% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.66–2.77 0.39–3.05 | — | 1.79 0.67–2.91 0.38–3.20 | — | 3.51 1.33–5.68 0.77–6.25 | — | 37% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.38 1.97–4.80 1.58–5.19 | — | 2.95 1.40–4.51 0.97–4.94 | — | 6.34 3.37–9.30 2.55–10.13 | — | 49% 16% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.